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Talk with Joseph Yam 昨晚(8日)在港大Rayson Huang Theatre听了任志刚Joseph Yam(HKMA chief and alumnus of HKU)和港大校长徐立之Lap-Chee Tsui的对话,蛮好玩的,听众提问的主要是关于RMB升值+USD贬值下的香港联系汇率制度/97年double play/QDII&Through Train/RMB&HKD挂钩一篮子货币等等问题,任先生很清晰的把自己的捍卫free mkt地位的观点表达出来,同时将mkt speculation与mkt manipulation区分开,以解释97年港府入市行动的动机;有两个敏感问题,都被任先生巧妙化解. 对话中关于QDII/直通车/一篮子货币的内容,基本如<明报>的报导;也的确如评论中所说,任先生暗示近期针对其高薪和任期即将结束的炒作有manipulation之嫌(kind of kidding, 但是任先生作为公众人物,任何情况下所说的话,总会被理解为not kidding).但是就任先生就高薪问题的回答,明报的评论不符合任先生的解释;任先生解释的重点在于HKMA成立之初,即为非公务员编制,为吸引private sector的人士加入HKMA,才有HKMA整体上的高薪架构. 以下为<明报>2007年11月9日报导和评论,请点击图片看大图: [attachimg]61869[/attachimg]
以下为对话的笔记,括号内为大意,括号外为Mr. Yam原话: Q: a review of post 1993 (when HKMA built up)? A: strong belief in free-mkt - 1997 turns out to be a mkt freely manipulated - mkt failure - why fix-rate system? predicable for HK people who do overseas business here - the depreciation of HKD, embarrassing - HK economics quite well, (yet) HK currency down with USD – (looks like) early 1990s when US low interest rate - it is the cost of fix-rate system, but worthwhile of taking than the alternative - the depreciation of USD, hence HKD, (was and is) adjustment, (appreciation) will come back
Q: bubble? A: - Yes, I’m worrying about bubble (in stock/RE mkt), but no alternative (therefore stick to fix-rate system) - Industry (should) be alerted of possibility of volatility
Q: why not HKD peg with a basket of currencies? A: - Technically difficult, if someone (hand in) HKD, should we (turn out) with 100 JPY, 1 RMB and 0.5 EUR? - Difficult to maintain the sense of stability - Peg with single currency or a basket, no much difference
Q: the appreciating RMB and QDII? A: - Tools for China’s money authority (MA) are limited - QDII is just one of the tools - controlled amount by MA - Through-train: one bank, one city, one mkt – the receipt of failure - (the policy should let) those who already have FX to get out of China and invest in any mkt - Good for everyone, esp for HK
Q: will HKD unified with RMB? A: - (Kidding: raising the HK Basic Law) according to the basic law, HKD (will maintain as) a freely convertible currency - No time table, leave for the mkt - (still kidding) one possibility, HKD will be strong and important in mainland China
Q: if RMB freely convertible, will HKD peg with RMB? A: - The appreciation of RMB and depreciation of USD is adjustment - For HK, Mainland is the largest (trade partner), US the 3rd - (If I have to choose it today,) still choose USD linked
Q: RMB app against USD, how to protect (HK FX asset)? A: - Achieving positive alpha, 88.4% of USD based asset
Q: salary VS work (Mr. Yam has an extremely high salary compared with HK gov officer yet his job looks simple – just keep the peg)? A: - The term, appointment and salary are for the financial secretary, not for myself - Pay level compared with private sector, attempt to attract people from private sector (to work for HKMA). One of the reasons why separate MA from public servants (in 1993)
Q: (Will it be a) reversal double play? A: - (explaining reversal double play) first go long in future, second sell USD to MA, third drive down the interest rate, 4th boom the mkt - (but) we always can borrow money at a lower rate (than the mkt manipulator)
Q: China gov just reduce the golden week (in May), will it hurt HK eco? A: - (I took it as the Chinese people will) have more holidays and more chance to come here and spend (their) money
[此贴子已经被作者于2007-11-10 21:15:10编辑过] | 
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发表于 2007-11-5 22:04:00
