feifei-6疑问

daydaysun

题目如下：

Questions 5-6

Sales manager: Last year the total number of meals sold in our company restaurants was much higher than it was the year before. Obviously consumers find our meals desirable.

Accountant: If you look at individual restaurants, however, you find that the number of meals sold actually decreased substantially at every one of our restaurants that was in operation both last year and the year before. The desirability of our meals to consumers has clearly decreased, given that this group of restaurants---the only ones for which we have sales figures that permit a comparison between last year and the year before---demonstrates a trend toward fewer sales.

6. Which one of the following, if true, most seriously calls into question the accountant’s argument?

(A) The company’s restaurants last year dropped from their menus most of the new dishes that had been introduced the year before.

(B) Prior to last year there was an overall downward trend in the company’s sales.

(C) Those of the company’s restaurants that did increase their sales last year did not offer large discounts on prices to attract customers.

(D) Sales of the company’s most expensive meal contributed little to the overall two-year sales increase.

(E) Most of the company’s restaurants that were in operation throughout both last year and the year before are located in areas where residents experienced a severe overall decline in income last year.

详解版解释如下：

Accountant: the number of meals sold by every restaurants operating these two years actually decreased last year from the year before （事实）à the desirability of our meals has decreased ( conclusion) à  a trend toward fewer sales (conclusion)

1， 不同的取样，Sales Manager depends on the total number of meals sold in the company in the  last year, while Accountant depends on each of 2-year-history restaurant；

2， 论据与结论之间没有必然的联系，却被当成充分条件。他因可以解释结论。

我的疑问

（1）原文中说：卖出meal的数量在下降，accountant得出的结论是“消费者的desirability下降了”，答案E说消费者的income下降了，我认为对desirablility是否下降不产生任何削弱作用。

（2）原文给的原因是“given that this group of restaurants demonstrates a trend toward fewer sales”得出的结论是“The desirability of our meals to consumers has clearly decreased”，它因来解释结论，这是什么方法？？？

请NN快来帮我解惑！

fredshen

Ok, first of all it's not consumer's desirblity(“消费者的desirability下降了), it's meal's desirbility to consumer decreases.

Accountant reaches the conclusion by saying comparing restruants that are in business for the past two years have fewer sales. He claims that this is the only way to see if company's meal desibilty decrease or not, which makes somewhat sense, since you have to compare to say something decrease or not. But this also leaves a lot of room to be attacked. Out of 5 choices, only E attacks account's reasoning by providing an alternative explaination to the fewer salse of old restruants that it's not because the meals are less attractive, but rather the customers of those restruants have less income and thus visit them less.  

I think 不同的取样 is a red-herring in this question. It just makes some confusion.

Hope this helps.

daydaysun

谢谢fredshen的详细解释

但是我还有疑问，我并不认为“Accountant claims that this is the only way to see if company's meal desibilty decrease or not”，而我认为accountant那句话正确的译法是：考虑到餐厅收入处于下滑态势中（因），因此我们的菜对于顾客来说不再那么的有吸引力了（果）。

哇，写到这里突然发现了我的白痴之处：当然是顾客对我们的菜期望值下降才导致了收入下滑，反过来的话，逻辑关系不通的呀，那有餐厅收入下降导致期望值降低的道理。。。寒～～～

那原文中的given,虽然翻译成“考虑到”，从中文含意上是因非果，但从逻辑链上来看，是真正的果，结论。

牛牛，不知道我说的对吗？

fredshen

Hmmm.

Like you said it, the accountant claims that meal's atractiveness decreased because of fewer sales last year comparing with the year before.  This is a weaking question. You are asked to weaken the reasoning that allows to reach the conclusion. In this case, you need to attack the assumption that fewer sales is an indicator of decreasing meal desirbility.  The "desirbilty" here deals with more of taste.   

"given" is an indicator of premise, reason. It's immediately followed by a fact that will lead to the conclusion.

E.g

Given we have studied so hard, we will do well in the test.

[此贴子已经被作者于2005-12-15 3:52:45编辑过]

daydaysun

谢谢fredshen

现在理解了，因还是“fewer sales”，果还是“meal's atractiveness decreased”，作者的assumption是"fewer sales is an indicator of decreasing meal desirbility"，因此attack the assumption就是"the residents' decreasing income is an indicator of decreasing meal desirbility"

再次感谢fredshen的热情帮助！献上红花数朵

fredshen

此attack the assumption就是"the residents' decreasing income is an indicator of decreasing meal desirbility"

No.

Ok, I am not too much into sufficient, necessary condition analysis for weakening question. But if we must, let's try.

The conclusion is meal's desirebility is decreasing

The assumption: fewer salse is a sufficient condition (an indicator) of the conclusion

sufficient condition: fewer salse

necessary condition: decreasing meal desirbilty

The reasoning here is that decreasing desirebility is a necessary condition for fewer salse. So when fewer sales occurs, the decreasing meal desirebililty also occurs.

You job is to weaken it. How? Possibly you need to show when the assumed necessary condition does not happen the sufficient condtion still happens. That is you need to show an alternative sufficient condition for fewe salse. E) just does that. Your understanding of E) is that it's an alternative sufficient condition for decreasing meal desirbilty, which is wrong.

another way of thinking it is cause/effect

cause: decreasing meal desirbility

effect: fewer sales

Weaken: show  decreasing meal desirbility is not a cause of fewer salse.

Hope this helps.

[此贴子已经被作者于2005-12-16 3:02:28编辑过]

daydaysun

谢谢fredshen,非常感谢你耐心的、详细的分析和解释。完全赞同你对因果关系和充分必要条件的分析，再次感谢你，请你喝杯茶