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感觉这道题应该不难，但是还是费了半天劲，也不知道怎么样。大家帮忙！！
The following appeared in an Avia Airlines departmental memorandum.
`On average, 9 out of every 1,000 passengers who traveled on Avia Airlines last year filed a complaint about our baggage-handling procedures. This means that although some 1 percent of our passengers were unhappy with those procedures, the overwhelming majority were quite satisfied with them; thus it would appear that a review of the procedures is not important to our goal of maintaining or increasing the number of Avia's passengers.~
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
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In this argument, the author claims that it would appear that a review of their baggage-handling procedures is not important to their goal of maintaining or increasing the number of Avia's passengers. To buttress the conclusion, the author cite that the overwhelming majority were quite satisfied with the procedures based on the survey that only nine out of one thousand passengers who traveled on Avia Airlines last year filed a complaint about their baggage-handling procedures. At first glance, the conclusion seems to be plausible. However, a careful examination can reveal several flaws from the argument.
In the first place, the author reaches the conclusion based on a gratuitous assumption that all the passengers who did not complain about the baggage-handling procedures are satisfied with these procedures. But the author shows no evidence to support the assumption. It is possible that travelers who are not satisfied with the services will not complain about the procedures because of several reasons. For example, a top manager are very dissatified with the procedures. However, he or she do not have time to reflect the problem to the managers of the Avia Airlines, and then the memorandum can not record the complaint. Therefore, the assumption can not be valid unless the company can ensure that all the passengers who are not satisfied are all included in the memorandum.
In the second place, the author commits a fallacy of "all things are equal". No evidence can shown to support such assumption. The survey conducted last year can not reflect the situation of this year or of future. Common sense tells us that everything changes as times goes by.For example, a qualified manager who was responsible for the baggage-handling procedures jumped into another company at the beginning of this year. Consequently, the employees were all very depressed and did not work with responsiblity. Thus, the quality of this service have been declined since this year.
Finally, giving no imformation about the record of the competitors, the author may distort the seriousness of the problem. Admittedly, the absolute number of the passengers who complain about the procedures is small. It is possible that the ratio of the Avia Airlines is much lagger than those of its competitors. Therefore, because of the relativly large perentage of complaint, the Avia Airlines can not achieve its goas of maintaing or increasing the number their passengers.
In conclusion, the author makes a too hasty conclusion based on gratuitous assumption, a fallacy of "all things are equal" and a incomprehensive consideration. To valid the statement, the author should show some record that includes the imformation about all the passengers and the comparable competitors. Otherwise, we can safely show the opposition to the author's conclusion.
[此贴子已经被作者于2005-9-23 15:55:31编辑过] | 
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发表于 2005-9-23 15:54:00
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