The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Carlo's Clothing to the staff:
"Since Disc Depot, the music store on the next block, began a new radio advertising campaign last year, its business has grown dramatically, as evidenced by the large increase in foot traffic into the store. While the Disc Depot's owners have apparently become wealthy enough to retire, profits at Carlo's Clothing have remained stagnant for the past three years. In order to boost our sales and profits, we should therefore switch from newspaper advertising to frequent radio advertisements like those for Disc Depot."
我的写法是这样的:
1. 时序性因果:因为Disc Depot去年做radio广告之后盈利了,就认为是广告导致的。可能是降价导致的。
2. 时间外推:就算是广告导致了音乐商店的盈利,但一年前的radio advertising campaign有效不代表现在还有效。可能人们如今都上网而不听radio了。
3. 错误类比:就算是广告导致了音乐上的盈利,但类比the music store和Clothing store是不对的。可能music store的潜在顾客因为爱听音乐而经常听radio,通过radio了解歌曲,但是买衣服的人很少通过radio来了解衣服。
怎么去想让步呢?首先捋顺逻辑链。承上例:Carlo's Clothing的老板认为隔壁音乐商店去年通过radio advertising campaign大赚一笔。如果,Carlo's Clothing也要搞像音乐商店那样的radio advertising campaign,我们就也赚啦!【要说明一下,AWA里捋逻辑链抓大概就可以,因为不是每一处都要攻击,写不过来的。找出自己认为顺畅的逻辑链就可以了。比如这个例子里,说its business has grown dramatically, as evidenced by the large increase in foot traffic into the store也是有问题的,因为客流量增加不一定就盈利,顾客可能只看不买。但我没有把这一点放进逻辑链里,写逻辑链的时候要顺便考虑一下,把这一点写出来攻击的时候够不够顺畅。当然你自己觉得顺畅就好】 其次,对应着逻辑链上的缺陷,按顺序攻击。往上看,我的反驳思路是:首先,服装店老板因为Disc Depot去年做radio广告之后盈利了,就认为是广告导致的。可能是降价导致的。 其次,就算是广告导致了音乐商店的盈利,但一年前的radio advertising campaign有效不代表现在还有效。可能人们如今都上网而不听radio了。 再次,就算是广告导致了音乐上的盈利,但类比the music store和Clothing store是不对的。可能music store的潜在顾客因为爱听音乐而经常听radio,通过radio了解歌曲,但是买衣服的人很少通过radio来了解衣服。
这个递进的顺序是很严谨的,脑补一下,A-----B-----C的逻辑链上,先干掉A,让步,再干掉B,再让步,干掉C。我的三个攻击点顺序都对应到了逻辑链中的缺陷的顺序。写递进的思路比罗列攻击点更耗时,因为要考虑内部的关系,但也因此加强了逻辑思维。