arguement 60 拍拍拍啊 这是我A的第二篇，

yufei1990

这是第二篇A， 第一篇写的 “千疮百孔”， 这篇感觉好一点，  
麻烦给指点。
60.



　The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.

　　"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.











In this argument, the author draws a conclusion that increasing investment in Cnosolidated Industries to satisfied the demand of home heating oil based on several evidences. It seems convincing at the first glance. However, those evidences the author commits several faws in this argument.

  To bolster this conclusion, the author points out that: last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several or more years. Actually, the author means that the region's climate will very cold year by year, so that the heating oil will be used more that before.  But there are several unfounded assumptions in this evidence. Firstly, the author assume that the time of low temperature is long. Nevertheless, if this just is a common phenomenonthar the region experienced 90 days with below normal temperatures in last several years. the author's conclusion is vague. And as far as we now, since today on one technology can definitely forecast the weather in the future. Therefore, we cannot get the this conclusion form above reasons, so that the demand of home heating oil dose not increase. To strengthen the arguer deduction, more information should be given. For example, how the climate in the last several years. And how the forecasterprediction definition .


Secondly, the arguer says: many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. It dose not enough evidences to contribute it. Firstly, the recent population growth is vague, there not enough formation about population increasing tendency in the region. If the arguer infers the population growth by the recent years tendency, it is does not convincing. Perhaps there are other factors lead to people reduce their spending, such as economic crisis, so that few people will come here. Secondly, the author's deduction is unfounded.Even if the population in this region will growth, we cannot say the new homes are being built in the region. Perhaps people just live here for several days, they are not intend to buy new homes but rent here departments; or there people do not prepare to live here in winter because of the cold climate. Thirdly, there is a few in author's conclusion. Even if there an increasing number of people will buy this home, we can not say they will regard the heating oil as a main fuel for heating. Maybe they will create heating by other fuels that are clear fuel and more economic. Based these possibles, we can get this conclusion that many new homes will being built in this region and the demand for heating oil does not increase. To make the conclusion more convincing, more information should be collected, for example, whether the population will increase or not; whether the people will buy this home or not; whether the people who has brought here home will use the oil as a main fuel.



  To sum up, this argument is unconvincing based above analysis. Hence, the author should provide more information about his or her evidences.

yufei1990

非常感谢 雨林中人 ..    thank you！


     自己的英语底子很差，4月27号考G，  最近心里惶惶的。 总之坚持到最后。！！

竹林中人

蓝色部分是改正过的，红色部分有些改了有些没改，你重点看下。
语言表达的问题还是很大，基本的语法和词汇短语，还不够很熟练，需要加强
文章只谈了两点，略显单薄。

竹林中人

In this argument, the author draws aconclusion that increasing investment in Cnosolidated Industries to satisfy the demand of home heating oil based on several evidences建议这里简要概括下题目提到的evidences. It seemsconvincing at the first glance. However, thoseevidences the author commits several faws in this argument.这句话不是完整的，而且建议这句话能紧扣instruction来下结论。

 Tobolster this conclusion, the author points out that: last heating season thatregion experienced 90 days with below normal temperatures, and climateforecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several or moreyears. Actually, the author means that the region's climate will very cold yearby year, so that the heating oil will be used more thanbefore.  But there are several unfoundedassumptions in this evidence. Firstly, the author assumesthat the time of low temperature is long. Nevertheless, if this is just acommon phenomenon that the region experiences 90days with below normal temperatures in last several years，the author'sconclusion is vague. And as far as we now, sincetoday on？ onetechnology can definitely forecast the weather in the future. Therefore, wecannot get this conclusion form above reasons, so that the demand of homeheating oil does not increase. Therefore 和 so 在一个句子连续出现，是不是不太好？To strengthen the arguer deduction, more information should begiven. For example, how the climate is inthe last several years. And how the forecasterprediction definition .


Secondly, the arguer says: many new homesare being built in the region in response to recent population growth. It does not enough evidences to contribute it. Firstly,the recent population growth is vague, there not enoughformation about population increasing tendency in the region. If thearguer infers the population growth by the recent yearstendency, it is does not convincing一个句子里面怎么可以有两个谓语动词. Perhaps there are other factors leadingto people’s reducing their spending, such as economic crisis, so thatfew people will come here. Secondly, the author's deduction is unfounded. Evenif the population in this region will growth, we cannot say the new homes arebeing built in the region. Perhaps people just live here for several days, theyare not intend to buy new homes but rent here departments; or there people donot prepare to live here in winter because of the cold climate. Thirdly, there is a few in authors’ conclusion. Even if there an increasing number of people will buy this home,we cannot say they will regard the heating oil as a main fuel for heating.Maybe they will create heating by other fuelsthat are clear fuel and more economic. Based thesepossibles, we can get this conclusion that many new homes will being built in this region and the demand forheating oil does not increase. To make the conclusion more convincing, moreinformation should be collected, for example, whether the population willincrease or not; whether the people will buy this home or not; whether thepeople who has brought here home will use the oil as a main fuel.



 Tosum up, this argument is unconvincing based above analysis. Hence, the authorshould provide more information about his or her evidences.