argument 5~~~

CynthiaYing

5 The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.


"On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."


Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.



In this letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette, the author suggest the town council of Balmer Island to limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season, simulating the neighboring island of Seaville’s enforced limits, who reduces 50 percent annual moped accidents last year.The author asserts that Balmer will also achieve a 50 percent reduction of number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians if doing so, for in Balmer Island, mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, and the population there increases to 100,000 during the summer months.This analogy and ratiocination seems reasonable at the first glace; however, fallacies abound when we think them twice, which I would analyze as followed.
The author attempts to reduce the number of mopeds to decline the incidence rate of accidents involving both mopeds and pedestrians, which are unwarranted obviously.It is a common sense that the number of vehicles has no direct relation to the accidents caused by pedestrians. If we take no measure to regulate people’s behavior when they cross the road, especially that betrays the traffic rules, a cutback of mopeds would be invalid.To recognize and distinguish the main responsibility of an accident is one of the most pivotal things before we establish any regulations to improve traffic conditions.
Moreover, how can we make sure if the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies is limited from 50 per day to 25 per day, the accident number is bound to be declined to the half as well.No evidence provided to substantiate there exist certain linear relationship between these two issues.Indeed, the author hastily makes his or her assumption that if the council does limit the renting mopeds, any other factors which affect traffic accidents are not going to be altered.In other words, all the elements that may have influence on the incidents are absolutely independent, which is unfeasible and unattainable in reality.
Even if we ignore those flaws and possibilities the author fails to provide us, we can still not reach agreement with him for his false analogy between Balmer and Seaville.Even they are neighbors, there could be a series variances between them, for example, the population and original number of mopeds.Besides, does the Seaville government implement other intervention to ameliorate their traffic conditions, and what exact number of mopeds do they limit are not offered.So hardly can we rule out the possibility that it is not the moped-limit that attribute to its success of traffic control.What’s more, as we know, Balmer Island is a sightseeing district that population soars during summer, so that a cutback of mopeds is tend to bring inconvenience to the tourists, and thus undermines Balmer’s economic revenues, which is also a significant element we ought to take into account.
To wrap up, this author’s rational analysis remains limited so that hardly earns my endorsement to his conclusion that to limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season could result in a 50 percent of reduction of accidents involving with mopeds and pedestrians over the year.In order to let that inference to be thorough or compelling enough for creditability, he would necessarily convey more concrete evidence to rule out all the above-mentioned possibilities.Otherwise, the arguer would have to better censoring all the various angles and factors involved before his last analysis.

普渡哥

顾及不到句子的时候最好有短句表达。

CynthiaYing

To wrap up, this author’s rational analysis remains limited so that hardly earns my endorsement to his conclusion that to limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season could result in a 50 percent of reduction of accidents involving with mopeds and pedestrians over the year.In order to let that inference to be thorough or compelling enough for creditability, he would necessarily convey more concrete evidence to rule out all the above-mentioned possibilities.

第一次见到这样的长句。。。。
我觉得作文还是要条理清晰，意思清楚比较好。

-- by 会员 ppguo (2011/12/11 23:06:32)

恩，因为感觉行文中可能顾及不到句子，所以在结尾的时候构造了个长句，不过这其实是两句啦~

ppguo

To wrap up, this author’s rational analysis remains limited so that hardly earns my endorsement to his conclusion that to limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season could result in a 50 percent of reduction of accidents involving with mopeds and pedestrians over the year.In order to let that inference to be thorough or compelling enough for creditability, he would necessarily convey more concrete evidence to rule out all the above-mentioned possibilities.

第一次见到这样的长句。。。。
我觉得作文还是要条理清晰，意思清楚比较好。

竹林中人

顶上去