AA31 习作，请求指导

five626

In the argument the author recommends that the firm should transfer its investment from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee, as the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease in the future. He bases this proposal primarily on the studies, which show that the volume of coffee consumption for a coffee drinker is positively related to his age, while the consumption of Cola for a Cola drinker is decreasing when the Cola drinker’s age is increasing. Moreover, he cites the statistics to indicate that the number of order adults will increase over the next 20 years. Although the argument sounds convincing, it is questionable at least for two reasons.



In the first place, the author simply displays the results of two studies, while the ‘study suggests’ is too vague to be informative. Without any context of the study and any information about research methods associated with the study, it is impossible to access the validity of the result. Moreover, given that the studies are authentic, trends appeared in the last 40 years may not continue in the next 20 years. It is possible that as more and more findings reveal that cocaine will cause multiple diseases for middle aged group, the drinkers will consume less coffee than before. Unless he can prove the market and business environment will stay the same as the past 40 years, the assumption is dubious and unwarranted.



In the second place, the author falsely assumes that the increase in the older adult in the population will lead to an increase in the number of coffee drinkers and a decline in the number of cola drinker. It is possible that a large amount of aged people don’t have the habit to drink coffee from the very beginning. So the enlarged older adult group may not contribute to the coffee consumption at all. Likewise, maybe the birth rate of this district could also rise, which will lead to more young children, who are most likely in favor of cola instead of coffee. Without comparison of the changes in the two groups, the cited statistics is not useful.



In the third place, even the demand of coffee will rise in the future, the demand for an exact coffee brand, such as Early Bird, may not rise. There is no information about Early Bird coffee, such as the market share, annual income, growth rate or current price. Thus the investment advice on this brand is ungrounded. ( 这是什么fallacy， 这是个fallacy对吧？)



In conclusion, the author fails to provide adequate justification for the predication of demand trends. As it stands, the reasoning does not constitute a logical argument in favor of the recommendation. To strengthen the argument, the author would have to prove the authenticity of the study and provide information about the changes in population. To better assess the argument, we need additional detailed information about the Early Bird Coffee brand.