argument 15

桌子上的梨

The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.


"Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many severs have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term "butter" to refer to either butter or margarine. Thus, we predict that Happy Pancake House will be able to increase profits dramatically if we extend this cost saving change to all our restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well."


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提纲：
1.只有2%的人抱怨不代表其他98%的人是乐于接受这个改变的，可能很多人直接就走了，下次不来了。这种隐形的流失比抱怨更加有损于餐厅的生意。
2.2%的人抱怨不等于这部分人可以忽略，他们可能是餐厅的VIP或者死忠粉丝，如果得罪了他们可能对于餐厅会造成很大的损失。就算这2%是平均分配在各个类型的客人里的，也未

必不应该重视。要看一下餐饮行业平均的抱怨率，如果平均只有万分之三，那么2%就是很高的比例了。
3.很多服务生报告说许多顾客没有抱怨，这个事实如果没有数据支撑是很难令人信服的。或许在一百个要求黄油却被提供了人工黄油的人里只有13%没有抱怨，这还是可以被解释为
很多都没有抱怨。另外很多的服务生是占多大比例的服务生呢？十个服务生就可以称之为many了吧。这对于了解实际的情况没有多大意义。
4.最后报告假设没有说的人是不认识黄油或者认为人造黄油等于黄油的，是不客观的，可能很多人知道只是没说出来而已。
5.就算该店这种做法是合适的，也未必可以推广到全国，因为全国各处的情况可能有很大的不同
6.利润是关乎收入与支出双方面的，现在还没有该店改变后的利润数据，说全国都会有利润增长实在是操之过急。


In the memo, the author recommended Happy Pancake Restaurants (HPR) in the southeast and northeast to replace butter with margarine. To bolster this argument, the author cites a 2% complaining percentile and some favorable responses provided by the servants. Basis on this line of evidences, he reasons that customers don't care about they are served with butter or margarine. Granted that it seems to be somewhat appealing, the argument relies on a series of unsubstantiated assumptions, which render it unconvincing as it stands.

To begin with, the author assumes 2% compliments are low and ignorable, he also assumes the other 98% who don't complain are happy about the change. The assumption overlooks the strong possibility that complainer maybe a small group in all consumers who are dissatisfied. When dissatisfied, not every one incline to complain, some people just don't want to argue with the servants’ to avoid spoiling their happy mood, but they won't come back to eat any longer. Considering consumer behaviors in reality, this is quite possible. Also, although a 2% compliments seems low, it can be actually very high comparing with the average data of the whole industry. Or perhaps, these complaint costumers are most loyal and profitable, they like the restaurant so much that they would like to revolt the unfavorable change. If so, there is no reason to ignore the existing complains.

Secondly, the speaker falsely cites the servants’' reports to assert that customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead are because these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine. The author fails to indicate the actual number of servers who reported, and what percentage of the whole server group do they make up, thus we cannot evaluate if the fact cited above is significant. Also, the author does not tell us the percentage of customers who do not complain. Lacking such evidence, it is difficult to assess the merit of the memo's recommendation.

Thirdly, the manager unfairly assumes that consumers in the southeast reflect those throughout consumers in the northeast. However, the author provides no evidence that this is the case. It's quite possible HPH in southwestern was an aberration. Perhaps the consumer tastes and habits have become so well entrenched that consumers would not be glad to change. Or perhaps southwestern has some special advantage that other cities do not have - and that it cannot duplicate in any other types.


Besides, profit is a function of not just cost but also revenue. Yet, we are not informed how the restaurant going after the change, did consumption declined during that time? How many cost have been cut down?Thus, without this marketing information, it is difficult to assess the merit of the memo's recommendation.


In sum, the recommendation relies on certain doubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing as it stands. To bolster it the argument's author must show--perhaps by way of a reliable citywide study--that consumers of different backgrounds are all indifferent in the butter change strategy. The author would also bolster the argument by providing reliable evidence that this plan are overwhelming in the national market. Finally, to better assess the argument I would need to know the change do bring a higher profit.

普渡哥

理由给的很全面，很好。

普渡哥

英文也不错，没见太多语法问题：）

桌子上的梨

被鼓励了，得意中。就是写得太慢了……