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60.Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
In this argument,the author argues that the Consoildated Industries(CI) should invest in heating oil because the retail sale of home heating oil is one of these major business operations. To support this claim the author point out that the typically weather pattern will continue for several years and many new homes are being built in the regin in response to recent population growth that cause the demand of heating oil. However, the argument relies on substantiated assumptions and is therefore unconvincing.
The writer implies that last heating season this region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures. The arguer ignores that in previous years how many days would last in winter.If previous winter was always last more than 90 days, this year will be a warm season. Without knowing whether the statistic of temperature was representative of the whole season, it is impossible to confidently apply results to cold winter. Perhaps few days of the temperature are blow zero or near zero, other days are normal temperatures. Lacking information about the tendency of temperatures, the director cannot make a convincing argument based on that date.
In addition, even if many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth but there is no evidence that people will live in these new buildings. Maybe the price of the new apartments is too high that no one can afford, traffic problem would also influence people to choose where to live. Furthermore, the new homes perhaps use advenced technology and they would give up the use of oil heating. Other new heating fuel maybe available currently. No evidence could indicate that increase of new homes will be related to the demand of heating oil.
However, the author recommend investment of heating oil in CI and point out that heating oil is one of the major business. But we cannot guarentee the investment will be profitable. Profitability is function of both revenue and expense.We do not know any financial information about CI and whether it would be able to accept the new investment. Blind investment is not wise for such retail sale company.People who live in this community is used to believe large companies, the large companies have skilled workers to deal with heating problem and have prefect after-sales service. Investment is not only concern about the requirement of people but also relate to profit of the project.
In the final analysis, the conclusion reached in this argument is invalid and misleading. To make it logically acceptable, the arguer would have to provide more evidence concerning the increasd new homes and the demand of heating oil. Additionally, the arguer must demonstrate that investing in CI will be profitable.
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