Argument 60 求拍！

雨霖林

Argument 60        今天的作业 求拍！ 谢谢大家了~

The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.

"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating.

Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

1.现在推将来，人口不一定增，oil需求量不一定增

2.信息不完整，其他供暖方式，oil需求量不一定增

3.信息不完整，CI公司oil的市场占有率，其他主要业务情况

The suggestion that we should invest in Consolidated Industries seems logical at first glance. After all, the demand for heating oil tends to increase in the future and the retail sale of home heating oil is one of Consolidated Industries’ major business operations. However, the argument is flawed by a series of unwarranted assumptions, which may result in a high-risk investment.



Firstly, the author assumes that the recent population growth may lead to an increased demand for heating oil. But that may not be the case. First of all, the recent population growth does not necessarily indicate a continued growth in the future. Even if the population keeps increasing in the next years, it is likely that most of them chose to immigrate to other warmer areas especially considering the extremely cold winter. In this case, the total population in the northeastern United States
will decrease in the future and the demand for heating oil will decrease too.


Secondly, the author assumes unfairly that people in this region will continue to use oil as their major fuel for heating in the extremely cold winter. It is possible that residents will choose a more clear and efficient energy such as electrical energy for heating instead of the traditional way. What is more, the author fails to provide any information about the heating facilities of the new houses. It is likely that the new houses are designed with a unified heating system and every family need not buy the oil by itself. All the cases mentioned above will cause a decrease in retail sale of home heating oil even all the heating oil market.



Even if the demand for heating oil will increase in the future, it is also too early to recommend investment in Consolidated Industries. What is the Consolidated Industries’ market share of heating oil? What is the ratio of the business of heating oil to all the business of Consolidated Industries? How is the other major business of Consolidated Industries? It is possible that few people want to buy the heating oil sold by Consolidated Industries or the loss in other major business is much more than the gain on heating oil. Thus, without these information we can not sure that invest in Consolidated Industries is a good idea.



In sum, the recommendation is unconvincing with the assumptions mentioned above. To improve the argument, the author must provide additional information to confirm that the demand for heating oil will increase. What is more, more information about Consolidated Industries’ business is needed to support the suggestion investment in Consolidated Industries.

雨霖林

对于这篇Argu，还有个问题想请教一下

题目中的“climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. ”能否质疑？

还是仅仅把它当做一个已知条件or背景介绍？

wling0513

应该是可以质疑的吧，我是把它当成了质疑的对象。
我觉得那个气象员也只是自己的预测，没有官方说明，有可能是他自己的推测而已；
另外他说的会持续几年，也是值得质疑的，因为不知道具体是几年，而且这几年内能够把投资成本收回来且获益。
我也不是很懂，这只是我自己的看法啦^^
楼主加油，我也加油！