The following appeared in a memo from the marketing director of Top DogPet Stores.
"Five years ago, Fish Emporium started advertising in the magazineExotic Pets Monthly. Their stores saw sales increase by 15 percent. The threeFish Emporium stores in Gulf City saw an even greater increase than that.Because Top Dog has some of its largest stores in Gulf City, it seems clearthat we should start placing our own ads in Exotic Pets Monthly. If we do so,we will be sure to reverse the recent trend of declining sales and start makinga profit again."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed toevaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthenthe argument.
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While it might be true that Top Dog Pet Stores should start advertising inthe magazine Exotic Pets Monthly, the director doesn't make a cogent inferenceto validate it. We can easily tell that Top Dog needs to do something toreverse the declining situation, but this argument is rife with holes and weakassumptions. More specific evidence is needed to be carefully considered andevaluated before we take into further account of it.
The author cites the fact that Fish Emporium posted ads in Exotic PetsMonthly, and their stores got an uptick by 15 percent, so he wants to use thisfact to prove that Top Dog can also make profits by doing the same thing. Thisanalogy is weak because the director doesn't provide enough evidence such aswhether Exotic Pets Monthly is only popular for fish fans. It's entirelypossible that dog owners or promising dog owners don't like this magazine, soeven if Top Dog posts their own ads, it won't make a big difference.Furthermore, it's also likely that this magazine is especially for exotic pets,so only people who like outlandish types of pets will buy it. But Top Dog isspecifying in native and indigenous dogs. In this sense, advertising in thismagazine would be not effective and could be turned out a waste of money.Unless the author adds some more information about confirming the match ofproperty between Exotic Pets Monthly and Top Dog Pet Stores, we can easily findspecific explanations to weaken or even topple this argument.
By almost the same token, the director emphasizes that buyers for fish inGulf City increased a lot after the advertising of Fish Emporium, and he/shepredict that our Top Dog stores in Gulf City will also make much profits. As weknow from the name of the city, Gulf City is likely to be a city next to thesea. Therefore, a large demand of fishes for pets in home is reasonable andthis feature quite suits the city. But there is no obvious reason accountingfor an increase of keeping a dog in Gulf City for each home. There might besome connections between keeping a dog and living in Gulf City, but the authorfailed to point them out. As a consequence, this evidence is too weak tosupport his argument. A slew of doubts can be come up with by readers. Tostrengthen his/her idea, the author has to make a comprehensive investigationabout this cause and effect, and then present the result to eliminate all thealternative explanations and doubts.
Last, even if dog owners or promising owners are interested in Exotic PetsMonthly, and Top Dog's pets can be matched to buyers' flavors, we still cannotaccept the author's anticipation. The declining sales in Top Dogs may not becaused by lack of buyers. It's probable that many buyers do come to Top Dogstores, but there is another chain store named "Superior Dog" hasmore breed of dogs or has a lower price for the same kind of dog. If this istrue, advertising will increase the number of visitors, but it cannot promisean increase of purchasing. Hence, the author has to say something more aboutwhy Top Dog is experiencing this recession and excludes other possibilitiesother than popularity of Top Dog.
An uptick and profitable business is needed by Top Dog Pet Stores, and wehave to do something to lead Top Dog to step out of the status quo. Advertisingin Exotic Pets Monthly could be a good way to achieve it, but some specificevidence needs to be evaluated by the author. I'm sure that once some hiddenassumptions are illuminated and other possibilities to interpret evidence areexcluded, this recommendation can be taken into account and step further.
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发表于 2013-2-8 14:23:49
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