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Topic:
46 The following appeared in a health magazine published inCorpora. "
Medical expertssay that only one-quarter of Corpora's citizens meet the current standards foradequate physical fitness, even though twenty years ago, one-half of all ofCorpora's citizens met the standards as then defined. But these experts aremistaken when they suggest that spending too much time using computers hascaused a decline in fitness. Since overall fitness levels are highest inregions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it isclear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, asshown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products andservices, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, andfitness levels will improve when the economy does."
Write a response in which you examine thestated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how theargument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for theargument if the assumptions prove unwarranted
医学专家指出C市只有四分之一的市民达到了目前的健康标准，尽管20年前，C的市有一半都达到了那时由国家制定的健康标准。同时专家们认为长时间的使用电脑可能是导致这一现象的原因，但这样的解释可能是错的。由于C 市是电脑拥有量最高的地区也是总体健康水平最高的地区，显然使用电脑并没有导致市民体质的下降。相反，今年用于健身产品和服务的花费低的异乎寻常，这表明最近经济的衰退最可能是原因，当经济复苏了健康水平也会随之提高。
Outline:
显然作者的结论太过武断。论据之间没有很强的联系。人们在fitness-related product 费用的减少不一定是经济下降的原因。
首先，论者的推论有一个假设：如果专家所说spending too much time using computers has caused a decline in fitness.是对的，就不应该出现overall fitness levels are highest inregions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest 这种现象，反过来说，现在，居然出现了这样的现象，于是专家的判断是错的。但是论者的推论要成立，至少要假设两种情况不存在：其一，不存在某个地区有higher levels of computer ownership，但是那里的人没有spending too much time using computers.但是这个假设未必成立。我们身边很多人拥有不止一台电脑，但他们用电脑的时间却不多。如此以来，论者提到的有些Corpora地区电脑拥有率很高但是人们健康水平很高这两种现象并存就不矛盾了。其二，Corpora地区这样的居民并不存在：拥有很多太电脑，同时健康水平也不高。这样的假设同样很难成立。因为我们的确发现过有些人每天使用电脑的时间很长，同时也很注意锻炼。子他们身上也会出现论者认为“用电脑很多，但是身体健康为受损害”这样看似矛盾的现象。但是由于这一部分人在人群中占的比例小，不能代表使用电脑人群的总体情况，因此专家的关于spending too much time using computers hascaused a decline in fitness的判断未必受到削弱。
第二，论者有这样一个推论过程：经济下滑导致this year's unusually low expenditures onfitness-related products and services，致使only one-quarter of Corpora's citizens meet thecurrent standards for adequate physical fitness。所以经济下滑是最终的原因。这个推论若要成立论者必须假设其他假设不存在其他的原因。但是这个假设同样很难成立：很多情况，比如Corpora的居民生活节奏加快，人们没有时间从事体育锻炼；对保健产品和服务质量和效果的怀疑；人口结构的改变（老年人口的减少和青壮年人口的增加）等等都会导致人们不在投资保健产品和服务。退一步讲，即便经济下滑导致了this year's unusually low expenditures onfitness-related products and services，依然不能肯定的说是this year's unusually low expenditures onfitness-related products and services导致了Corpora健康水平的整体下降。因为很可能有其他原因，比如环境的恶化。青壮年大量移民、该地区居民长期的饮食习惯等等。
健康质量下滑的原因是多方面的，不能一味的期待经济复苏带来健康状况的好转。
Text:
Obviously, the author`s conclusion is tooarbitrary. There is no strong relation between arguments. The recent decline inthe economy may not cause this year's unusually low expenditures onfitness-related products and services.
First, the author implied a hypothesis: if Medicalexperts ` statement about spending too much time using computers has caused adecline in fitness was right. The situation that overall fitness levels arehighest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are alsohighest should not be appeared. But now actually it occurred, then medicalexperts is wrong. However, if the author`s deduction was established therewould be two nonexistent situations: first, the phenomenon was inexistent thatthere are higher levels of computer ownership of people without spending toomuch time using computers in one area. However the hypothesis may not found. Manypeople around us own more than one computer with spending less time usingcomputers. Thus there is no contradiction between people`s high levels of computerownership with overall high fitness levels in regions of Corpora. Second, thereare no such resident whom fitness levels are highest in regions of Corporawhere levels of computer ownership are also highest. This hypothesis is also hardlycome into existence. Because we found that it true that some people spendingtoo much time using computers, at the same time keeping exercising. From thiswe can acknowledge this seemly paradoxical phenomenon is existent which people spendtoo much time using computers and overall fitness levels are highest. Only suchpeople is less population compare to all it is not represented the overallpeople. Therefore, medical experts` judgment about spending too much time usingcomputers has caused a decline in fitness may not be declined.
Secondly, the author showed such areasoning procedure: the recent decline in the economy result in this year'sunusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, leading onlyone-quarter of Corpora's citizens meet the current standards for adequatephysical fitness. So the recent decline in the economy is the final reason. Theauthor must hypothesis there is absence of other reasons. It is also hardlyestablished. There are many circumstances such as people had no time to doexercise with the faster live pace, people suspected the quality of fitness-relatedproducts and services and the alterant structure of people and so on would giverise to low expenditures on fitness-related products and services. Step backand speak, even though the decline in the economy lead to low expenditures onfitness-related products and services, it is not sure that this year'sunusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services had led tothe overall decline in fitness. Perhaps there are other case such asenvironmental deterioration and eating habits for people in Corpora.
The reason is various about the decline infitness. It is too absurd to look forward to economic resurgence would bring usbetter fitness.
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发表于 2012-10-24 20:20:15
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