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[argument] 83 amphibian一题思路提纲在此 求拍砖

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楼主
发表于 2012-9-9 20:07:41 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式
以前很天真地觉得A就是找错误,现在明白要有理有据有逻辑地找错误,而不是一概强词夺理地挑刺。贴出83题与大家一起讨论
[83] [The following is a letter to theeditor of an environmental magazine.]”In 1975 a wildlife census found that there were sevenspecies of amphibians in Xanadu National Park, with abundant numbers of eachspecies. However, in 2002 only four species of amphibians were observed in thepark, and the numbers of each species were drastically reduced. There has beena substantial decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide, and globalpollution of water and air is clearly implicated. The decline of amphibians in XanaduNational Park, however, almost certainly has a different cause: in 1975,trout—which are known to eat amphibian eggs—were introduced into thepark." [Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence isneeded to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken orstrengthen the argument.]
我的提纲
83 amphibian


1、amphibian数量真的减少了么?会不会是第一次观察时间久,第二次只观测了几天,明明有很多amphibian却没有观察到;也或许是观测设施陈旧,跟不上时代变化;在特定的时期,amphibian都藏起来生egg了?
2、trout能吃egg就能致死amphi?也许放在不同的湖里互相没有接触;也许园中还有许多trout的天敌,制约了trout吃egg的行为?也许园中trout有足够的forage,它们不用去捕食egg
3、trout就算能吃egg,是否唯一原因?无证据说明天气变化和洋流对Park中的amphibian没有影响。是不是amphibian中有什么流行病引起的数量下降?人类的违规影响是否也会影响amphibian数量?




求各位大神指教,欢迎批评,请问这样一个逻辑是否合流顺畅?
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沙发
 楼主| 发表于 2012-9-9 20:50:52 | 只看该作者
跟进自己写的文章,求意见和指导!

The author of this argument tries to persuade people that the decline of amphibians in Xanadu National Park is caused by the introduction of trouts, which are known to eat amphibian's eggs. This notion may seem all right at first sight, but unfortunately, the author fails to give enough evidence to prove that trouts are the only cause of amphibian's decline.

While the author blames the decline of amphibians on the trouts, the amphibians are not necessarily decimated in fact. Since the correctness of the two observations in the year 1975 and 2002 is not certain, we can never base our assumptions on this uncertainty. We may need far more information to make sure of the decline of amphibians instead of one conclusion from one group. A lot of possibilities may take place to impair these two observations. Are they done based on the same standard? Perhaps the investigation of 1975 was done within one year while the one in 2002 only lasted a few days? Are these two done with the same equipment? Perhaps the effective exploring equipment has been outdated and ineffective at all in 2002? Are they done by the same flock of people? Perhaps the experienced scholars in 1975 have retired in 2002 and some novice people take this job over in the second research. But, what I mentioned is not explained in the argument. As a result, we are allowed to have doubts on the credibility of the assertion that amphibians are becoming less and less.

And even though  amphibians are getting decreased, are these trouts necessarily to blame? What we only know about the trouts is that they eat eggs of amphibians, but they can only succeed in eating those eggs under certain circumstances. Without enough evidence to show the capability of eating eggs, no hasty conclusion can be achieved. And there are, in deed, a lot of chances that trouts can never eat eggs of amphibians. For example, trouts introduced in 1975 were all put in lake A in Xanadu Park while amphibians were living near other lakes. Even if these two species lived together, there may be other adversaries of trouts living in Xanadu Park, which imposed some restriction on trouts and protected the amphibian eggs to some extent. Or, trouts have more preferred food than amphibians' eggs near their reach so that they only eat quite a few eggs.

In addition, it is not appropriate for us to consider the trouts as the only reason of amphibians' decline, even if trouts really do harm to the number of amphibians. As the author mentioned, lives of amphibians were threatened globally due to the polluted air and water. But no evidence is given in the argument that the amphibians in Xanadu Park were not victims of the bad environment. At least, a credible scientific report from trustworthy institutions have to prove the good quality of water and air in Xanadu Park. Or, is there any other possibility for these poor amphibians? What if they contracted a pervasive disease among amphibians and die of this ailment? What if they lives are hampered by some secret animal hunting gangs in order to make money? Since there is no further explanation, there may be other reason for amphibians' decline.

In all, the author has to find out more evidence to prove what he advocates is true. He or she needs evidence to show that amphibians are really declining, the trouts in Xanadu really threaten amphibians' live seriously, and no more reasons should be responsible for amphibians' reduction in Xanadu.
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