- UID
- 624918
- 在线时间
- 小时
- 注册时间
- 2011-4-17
- 最后登录
- 1970-1-1
- 主题
- 帖子
- 性别
- 保密
|
In the letter, the firm recommends investment in Consolidated Industries, which mainly focus their business operations on the retail sale of home heating oil. In order to substantiate his suggestion, the arguer points out that there would be an increased demand for heating oil since the cold climate would continue for years and population would grow in the region. As it stands, this argument suffers from several critical flaws as follows.
In the first place, the author implies that since most homes in the northeastern United States have used oil as their major fuel for heating, they would continue to use oil for at least several years. However, statistics from such limited information may not be a sound evidence for us to draw such claim that it would remain the same.It is possible that within a few years, technology develops quickly and enables people use more environmental friendly fuels like solar energy to replace the current home heating oil. Thus, adopting the author’s investment suggestion may not help the client to gain a profit.
Besides, the author fails to establish a casual relationship between the fact that many new homes are being built and the claim that there would be more people. On the one hand, the arguer does not indict how many homes have been under building. It is possible that compared to the current residents in the town, the new households would just be a very small percent of population. On the other hand, even if we assume that there would be huge population growth in the town, there is no necessary that the new households would adopt the traditional heating fuels.
In addition, the arguer bases his prediction on the information that last years the region experienced more than 90 days with below-normal temperatures. However, the information is so limited that we find it is not persuasive. It is possible that most of those 90 days were just below the normal temperatures about one or two digress, which requested just slight increase in heating oil. Unless those possible interpretations have been considered and ruled out, we cannot safely jump the conclusion that the demand for heating oil would increase.
To sum up, the conclusion reached by the author lacks credibility since the evidences cited is not a strong support to this predication of higher demand of heating oil. Unless the arguer could provide us more information concerning the future trend about weather and people's use of heating fuels, the argument is logically unacceptable.
请问 是不是字数刚上400不够啊？ 模板痕迹明显不？
THX!! |
|
京公网安备11010202008513号 京ICP证101109号 京ICP备12012021号
发表于 2012-5-6 20:39:49
收藏
收藏
楼主
