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The following appeared in an article in the Grandview Beacon.
For many years the city of Grandview has provided annual funding for the Grandview Symphony. Last year, however, private contributions to the symphony increased by 200 percent and attendance at the symphony's concerts-in-the-park series doubled. The symphony has also announced an increase in ticket prices for next year. Given such developments, some city commissioners argue that the symphony can now be fully self-supporting, and they recommend that funding for the symphony be eliminated from next year's budget.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
In the argument, the city commissioners argue that the symphony can now be fully self-supporting, and they recommend that funding for the symphony be eliminated from next year's budget. To support the recommendation the commissioners point out that last year private contributions to the symphony increased by 200 percent and attendance at the symphony's concerts-in-the-park series doubled. And they claim that the symphony has also announced an increase in ticket prices for next year. However, I find this argument suspicious on several grounds.
One, the commissioners should consider these questions: If the same situation of the private contributions and the attendance would recur in the next year? It is entirely possible that the market situation was good last year and the business had a good sale, thus, their contributions increased by 200 percent. However, perhaps in the next year the market situation would not as good as that of last year, thus, they would decrease their contributions to the symphony. Moreover, it is quite possible that the double of the attendance last year was just because the symphony played in the park, which was a new form, the attendance doubled due to people's curiosity. However, it is quite likely that in the next year the people would lose their interests in this new form, thus, the attendance would have a drop. Therefore, without showing the clear and detailed evidence that the same situation would recur in the next year, the assumption that the attendance and private contributions would not have a drop is irrational, thus, the recommendation is not unpersuasive.
Two, the commissioners should also consider such a question: if the ticket revenue would have a increase after increasing the ticket prices? If people would prefer to pay a higher price? It is entirely possible that after increasing the ticket prices, people cannot afford the increased price, even if the increased price is in the range that people could afford, it is also likely that people would still not satisfied with the increased price or they think the symphony does not worth the increased price, thus, they would not go to the concerts and choose other symphonies instead, thus, the number of audiences would have a decline, though the ticket prices would have an increase, however, the ticket revenue would not have a increase. Therefore, without clear and accurate information about people's attitudes toward the increased ticket and whether they would go to the concerts after the symphony increases the ticket prices, the recommendation is still ill-conceived.
And finally, even if the ticket revenue would have an increase, if the gross revenue would afford the cost and could be fully-supporting? Though the revenue would have an increase, however, it is quite likely that the cost of self-supporting is so considerable that the revenue of the symphony is just a drop in the bucket. Hence, the revenue cannot afford the large budget. Therefore, without ruling out this possibility and showing the revenue and the cost clearly, the commissioners cannot convince me that the symphony can be fully self-supporting, and funding for the symphony should be eliminated from next year's budget. |
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发表于 2012-3-20 18:00:51
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