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刚刚写的，用了40分钟。。还只有420多个字。。最近对GRE 产生了万念俱灰之感。。。。哎。。。
The following recommendation appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
"Two years ago, the nearby town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. Therefore, the best way to improve Hopewell's economy—and generate additional tax revenues—is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."
wirte a response in which you examine the stated and unstated assumptions.
中文提纲：1、旅客人数增加一定是建的golf 和hotel 导致的吗。也许是这里的 旅游费用比较便宜。且 税收增加30% 一定表明 OC 的经济增长吗，也许之前的税收机会为零，而现在的30%也是insignificant.
2、Hope和Ocean 可比吗？ 也许H的资金远远小于Ocean，那么就没那么多钱来建立宾馆。
3、2年前的跟现在情况一样吗。也许在这2年， 这种golf和hotel早已经commonplace， 再也不能吸引顾客了。
建立hotel是only way 提升经济？ 也许别的方法，如 工业发展，提供更多就业岗位 能发展经济。。
In this memo, the mayor of the town of Hopewell recommends that Hopewell build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View. To bolster the recommendation, the mayor cites the facts that tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen since it built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. However, the argument is rife with holes and unreasonable assumptions.
Firstly, the mayor assumes that it is the new golf and resort hotel which are built by Ocean resulted in the increased number of tourism. However, it is unwarranted. It is entirely possible that the tourist cost such as food price and rental price in Ocean View is low, which attracted so many tourism, rather than the new golf course and resort hotel. Moreover, we do not know the actual number of Ocean View's tax revenues before building the course. Maybe it is almost zero, thus the 30 percent increase may be insignificant. For this matter, the mayor's recommendation is ill-conceived.
Even if the new construction in Ocean View was successful two years ago, yet the underlying assumption that Ocean View and Hopewell are comparable is open to doubt. Firstly, Hopewell may have no more fund than Ocean View has, and the cost of building golf course and hotel is too high to afford for Hopewell. Secondly, it is possible that the popularity of Hopewell is lower than that of Ocean View, thus it cannot attract many customers and business to here. Thus, without considering and ruling out these possibilities, the mayor cannot convince me that it is a good choice to follow with Ocean View's actions.
Even if these two towns are comparable, the author unfairly assumes that the circumstances relevant are essential same. Maybe during the two years, the golf course and resort hotel are commonplace, which thus cannot attract any tourism. And is it the only way to improve Hopewell's economy? I am afraid not. Some other ways may have more positive effects, such as pay more attention on industrial development which provides more jobs. Thus, taking the same actions as Ocean View, Hopewell's economy may unnecessarily be risen.
In summary, without providing more detailed information about Ocean View, the mayor cannot conclude that the new golf course and resort hotel caused the increased number of tourism. And if these two towns are incomparable, the mayor's recommendation that Hopewell build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View is ill-conceived. |
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发表于 2012-3-17 12:04:42
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