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36. The following report appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish comsumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once and twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds represent the most frequently given reason for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid- a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil- as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism.
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
The report publicized by the newsettler of the West Meria Public Health Council recommends daily consumption of Ichthaid-a nutritional substance derived from fish oil-to prevents cold and frequent absenteeism. To support this recommendation the author cites the statics concerning residents’ visiting doctors in East Meria, where people eat plenty of fish everyday, which indicates the potential effect of fish on preventing cold. The author also points out that colds represent the most regular excuses for absences of school and work. Careful examination of this supporting evidence, however, this recommendation contains several logical flaws, which render it unconvincing.
A threshold problem with the argument involves the vogue casual relationship between substantial consumption of fish and the prevention from colds-rather than some other phenomenon. The speaker ignores a host of other possible explanations for relatively low attack by colds-such as a trend at East Meria toward regular exercise, or the pleasant climate condition and geographic situation. Without ruling out all other possible explanations for the low proportion of having colds, the author cannot convince me that by eating Ichthaid people can efficiently prevent from cold-let alone to revise the severity of absences.
Even if eating fish could effectively protect human from having cold, the author’s assertion that the daily use of Ichthaid serve as a good way to forestall and reduce absenteeism is still unwarranted, in two respects. It is doubtable that Ichthaid acts as a substitute of consumption of fish, which contains much more nutritional substances other than Ichthaid. It is entirely possible that it is other supplement in fish not Ichthaid that enable people less vulnerable to the cold virus, in which case eating Ichthaid is unlikely to impose any effect to alleviate absenteeism. Second, the author provides no evidence referred to the side effect on taking Ichthaid. Perhaps taking Ichthaid will generate to more grave consequence, exaggerating the high absences situations.
Ultimately, even if the author can substantiate all of the foregoing assumptions, the author could hardly concludes that the absenteeism will be ameliorated by means of eating Ichthaid. The reasons given for absences from school and work do not necessarily reflect the actual excuses on the basis of the common acknowledge that cold deems to be the most reliable reason that could be less likely to deprived by employers. To extent that this is the case, then consumption of Ichthaid will have nothing to do with improving the attendance of work and school. Since the author does not provide any evidence to preclude this possibility- the healthy condition reports- we cannot hastily dram a conclusion that Ichthaid will ensure attendance.
In sum, the recommendation reached in the argument is invalid and misleading. To make it logically acceptable, the author should cite more evidence that the lower frequency of visiting doctors is attributable to the substantial consumption of fish, and Ichthaid is active in this prevention process. Moreover, I would suspend my judgment about the credibility of this argument until the author can present the real reasons of absences.
希望大侠们从各方面点评，以及应对策略 |
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发表于 2012-3-14 23:57:20
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