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题目是：
The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a food distribution company with food storage warehouses in several cities.
"Recently, we signed a contract with the Fly-Away Pest Control Company to provide pest control services at our fast-food warehouse in Palm City, but last month we discovered that over $20,000 worth of food there had been destroyed by pest damage. Meanwhile, the Buzzoff Pest Control Company, which we have used for many years, continued to service our warehouse in Wintervale, and last month only $10,000 worth of the food stored there had been destroyed by pest damage. Even though the price charged by Fly-Away is considerably lower, our best means of saving money is to return to Buzzoff for all our pest control services."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
下面是我写的：
The mere fact that the food destroyed in Wintervale worth less than that in Palm City last month is insufficient to lead to the conclusion--Buzzoff Pest Control Company can do a better job than Fly-Away Pest Control Company in Palm city.
Since most of companies hold profit maximization as the first principle in working policy, hiring someone who takes less and does better is easy to understand. While when the author collects evidence to support his conclusion, a huge mistake which causes all of the statistics invalid has been neglected—the main statistical evidence about the amount of food destroyed only covers the situation of last month. Common sense tells us that when doing an investigation, sufficient information is crucial and one month’s data are definitely not enough to lead to a precise result in under the circumstances. Without paying enough attention to the importance of exactness of data, the author’s conclusion can be affected by large quantities of random factors and error is almost sure to rise. It possible that a new type of insect appeared in Palm City last month and Fly-Away Pest Control Company have not had enough experience to control the damage caused by that specific insect, and Fly-Away Pest Control Company has come up with the method to restrain the number of the insect. If change to Buzzoff Pest Control Company at this very moment, Buzzoff Pest Control Company may need more time to find out how to deal with the new insect.
As to the amount of food damaged by insect, $20000 is indeed much larger than $10000. This fact, however, is still not enough to prove Buzzoff Pest Control Company worked more efficiently than Fly-Away Pest Control Company last month. The author fails to rule out the likelihood that food stored in Palm City worth much more than that stored in Wintervile. Let assume if Palm City has food worth $100000 and Wintenvale only has $40000, then Fly-Away Pest Control Company protect 80% of the food from being damaged by insects and Buzzoff Pest Control Company keep only 75% of the food safe. Thus the author’s conclusion no longer has a solid ground and Fly-Away Pest Control Company was very likely to have better performance last month.
Even though Buzzoff Pest Control Company does do a better job in Wintervale, the author overlooks regional difference and simply equates Palm City with Wintervile, which is unwarranted. Final decision could not be reached without a thorough survey, and judging a company's work only by its performance in one place is absolutely not enough. Possibly that the climate in Palm City is suitable for insects to multiply while Wintervile’s is hard for insect to survive. On condition that regional difference exists, whether Buzzoff Pest Control Company is able to keep its good performance remain unknown when further research is lacking.
From all the discussion above, the author's claim that the food distribution company should choose Buzzoff Pest Control Company in Palm City becomes not that satisfactory. Hence an overall investigation is significant if the food distribution company wants to choose an appropriate partner in Palm City.
求各位大神狠拍啊！ |
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发表于 2012-3-5 22:42:13
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