AA016,请指教

16. The following appeared as part of an article in the education section of a Waymarsh City newspaper.

“Throughout the last two decades, those who earned graduate degrees found it very difficult to get jobs teaching their academic specialties at the college level. Those with graduate degrees from Waymarsh University had an especially hard time finding such jobs. But better times are coming in the next decade for all academic job seekers, including those from Waymarsh. Demographic trends indicate that an increasing number of people will be reaching college age over the next ten years; consequently, we can expect that the job market will improve dramatically for people seeking college-level teaching positions in their fields.”

In this argument the author reach conclusion that better times are coming in the next decade for all academic job seekers, including those from Waymarsh. Based on the demographic trends that indicate that an increasing number of people will be reaching college age over the next ten years, the author maintain that the job market will improve dramaticly for people seeking college-level teaching positions in their fields. At first glance,  the author’s argument appears to be somewhat convincing, but there are some ridical reasoning flaws in this argument.

In the frist place, the author provides no evidence to support the claim that all academic job seekers including those from Waymarshs can find teaching jobs at college-level more easily in the next decade. The author falsely depends on gratuitous assumption that throughout the last two decades, those who earned graduate degrees found it very difficult to get jobs teaching their academic specialties at the college level. But better times are coming in the next decade for all academic job seekers. The bad situation of job market to teaching job seekers at college-level in last two decades and the improved satutus in the comind decade have no causal relationship. In addition, all other relevant reasons of bad hiring status to teaching job seekers at college level must be ruled out. In order to prove the conclusion, we need to know whether the market demand decrease or the structure change of market demand leads to all graduate hardly find jobs. if the reason is the latter, the market do not need the human resources of these academic specification. Thus even the market become prosperous, graduates will easily find teaching jobs. especially the status will be not improved if the graduates from Waymarsh can not meet the specification requirement in the market. moreover, the author’s assumption that the better times are coming in the next decade for all academic job seekers is groundless without any evidence to prove.

In the second place, the Demographic trends cited by the author is too vague to be informative. The claim does not indicate the range which the trends are applicable, national or local. if the dempographic trends just represent the local situation other than the place in Waymarsh City, we can not figure out that the number of people will increase and more people will need to get college education in next decade. Even though the demographic trends show national situation, it do not necessarily that job market will improve dramatically. It is sufficient to assume the population increase will result in the increase of market demand to college education and the increase of market demand will lead to the recruitment increase of academic teachers. The people prefer to take short-term job training in the next decade, or the college make use of new technology to offer education program in place of the meathod of hiring more teachers.   

In conclusion, the author fails to provide adequate justification for the reason that job seeker from Waymarsh will easily find teaching jobs in next decade. As it stands, the reasoning constitute some critical flaws. To strengthen the argument, the author would have to provide evidence to prove that the bad status of job market only came from the market situation, not from the market structure. to better assess the argument, we need additional detailed information about the demographic trends so that we can establish the conclusion whether the graduates from Waymarsh will easily find teaching job in next decade.

please give me some advice. thanks

linda不要害怕时间不够用。因为考试的题目我们都是完全清楚的。我们完全可以把思索和布局谋篇的时间放在考场以外。我的建议是先不急着写，AA仔细看看七宗罪AI看看AWA224同时看提纲讨论把自己觉得有问题的集中，然后等你有写作的冲动的时候再开始写并形成自己的模版。

你说的有道理，我还是不善于找逻辑错误，虽然我看了七宗罪，可能太抽象了，效率太低，还不得其所以然，所以今天开始看题目，看提纲。我好像只有黄金80的提纲文件，没有剩下的题目的讨论提纲。请问在那里下得到。心里急，虽然没报名，可是一定在九月要考试了。状态是是差，模考还是很惨。