- UID
- 726889
- 在线时间
- 小时
- 注册时间
- 2012-2-24
- 最后登录
- 1970-1-1
- 主题
- 帖子
- 性别
- 保密
|
Most homes in the northeastern UnitedStates, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as theirmajor fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 dayswith below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that thisweather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many newhomes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth.Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil andrecommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major businessoperations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
40分钟 478字
In this argument the arguer comes to theconclusion that there is an increased demand for heating oil and recommendsinvestment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operationsis the retail sale of home heating oil. To justify the conclusion, the arguercites a few facts: (1) Most families in the northeastern United States haveused oil as their major fuel for heating concerning the cold weather. (2) Theregion experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures and the weatherforecast predicts that the weather will continue for latter years.(3) Many newhomes are being built in response to the recent population growth. However,close scrutiny of these above facts reveals that it is unconvincing in severalaspects, which renders the prediction highly suspect.
To begin with, the arguer unfairly claimsthat most families using oil as the major fuel for heating will continue to useit for the next few years. It is entirely possible that they are willing tochoose some other cheap and environmentally friendly fuel sources if given theforecast of the enduring use for heating. In addition, even if most homesselect the oil as the heating fuel, the Consolidated Industries might not bethe only choice for consideration.
Moreover, the arguer shows no detailedinformation of the weather forecast, which makes the prediction more dubious.There seems to be a possibility that the forecast is not accurate and precise,thus the weather might be less likely as harsh as it used to be in the last 90days. Given the circumstances of climate change and other possible weatherconditions, the forecast fails to be a strong support for the claim.
Finally, without ruling out the exact informationof the new coming residents and newly built homes, the prediction based on thecurrent trends is invalid. Concerning that the inconvenience and the high costof the oil as the heating fuel, the newly homes might be built to meet thedemands of both safety and convenience and thus, probably select theelectricity as the supplicant. On the consequence, the prediction of andincreased demand for oil and the suggestion of expand the investment of ConsolidatedIndustries is less likely to be efficient and effective.
In sum, with the above unfairly based claimand some crucial logical flaws left unexplained, the argument of the arguer isinvalid and misleading. The arguer should have to demonstrate that mostfamilies actually are willing to continue to use the oil as the heating sourcewith certain inclination of the products from the Consolidated Industries.Moreover, the arguer has to prove that the forecast shown is representative andvalid from some authoritative institution. Last but not the least, the arguershould provide detailed information of the heating source for the newly builthomes. And only in these ways could the argument be a precise and efficientsuggestion. |
|
京公网安备11010202008513号 京ICP证101109号 京ICP备12012021号
发表于 2012-9-8 22:47:03
收藏
收藏
楼主
