- UID
- 603523
- 在线时间
- 小时
- 注册时间
- 2011-2-8
- 最后登录
- 1970-1-1
- 主题
- 帖子
- 性别
- 保密
|
60) The following appeared in a letter froma firm providing investment advice for a client.
Most homes in the northeastern UnitedStates, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as theirmajor fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 dayswith below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that thisweather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many newhomes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth.Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil andrecommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major businessoperations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
The notion that the demand for heating oilshould increase and the recommendation that investors should focus on the majorheating oil seller called Consolidated Industries seems at the first glance tobe an obvious conclusion. After all, the arguer cites some seemingly plausiblefacts: (1) that the winters in northeastern United States is typically cold andthe weather pattern will continue according to the climate forecasters; (2)thatmany new home are being built in the region in response to recent populationgrowth. The arguer, however, should have convinced more, since close scrutinyof the evidences above reveals that the argument is fraught with value, oversimplifiedand unconvinced assumptions, making the notion unpersuasive as it stands.
The underlying assumption the argumentrelies upon is that the climate forecasts are reliable. Unfortunately, no onecould substantiate the vital assumption, since it is common sense that even thefinest forecast equipment may take a mistake in predicting tomorrow weather,let alone a period as long as several years. In light of this, it is entirelypossible that a warm section of a climate cycle contributes to a decreaseddemand of heating oil. And perhaps the unexpected change in climate may heavilyblows the investors' confidence, rendering a sharp decrease in share price ofConsolidated Industries. As is shown above, without showing furtherinformation, the uncertainty of the future weather would undoubtedly challengethe author's argument, making the conclusion in vain.
Granted that, in ideal condition, weatherforecast precisely describes the climate in the following several years, thereis still an apparent flaw emerged in the article. That is, traditionally usingheating oil as a major fuel of heating by most homes do not necessity implythat owners of the new homes in this region select heating oil as their first choice forheating. It is apparently possible that more owners are willing to chooseelectric heaters instead of heating oil thanking to the rapid development oftechnology. Moreover, it may be that the price of heating wood decreases dramaticallyfor some complex reasons, making the oil lack of competitiveness in comparisonwith the wood.
Last but not least, even if the demand ofthe heating oil is indeed increasing as the argument predicts, therecommendation that investors should focus on Consolidated Industries is still opento doubt. As is well known, the ability of a company to make profit is acomplex function of supply, demand and other economic factors. Possibilitiesare that worldwide shortage of heating oil may shock Consolidated Industriesharshly and that nationwide economic depression may negatively impact theprofit of Consolidated Industries. All these possible factors can surely makeit hard for the arguer to defend his conclusion without enrich the evidencescited in the argument.
In a nutshell, the argument is logicallyflawed in many aspects and therefore farfetched as it stands. In order toreinforce the argument, the author should have provide some furtherinformation: (1)the creditability of the climate forecast; (2) the cogent informationof the trend of some other energy besides heating oil; (3)some complete financialrecord of the Consolidated Industries. Only in this way can the arguer drawreliable conclusion and be accepted by more people. |
|
京公网安备11010202008513号 京ICP证101109号 京ICP备12012021号
发表于 2012-8-5 22:19:09
收藏
收藏
楼主
