A recent sales study indicates that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent during the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants whose specialty is seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about healthful eating. Therefore, the new Captain Seafood restaurant that specializes in seafood should be quite popular and profitable.
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
1. 只知比例不知总量
2. 差异范围，全国调查->B市
3. 其他增加的成本
The author draws a conclusion that the new Captain Seafood restaurant will be quite popular and profitable if its specialty is seafood. It seems logical at first glance. After all, the conclusion is based on a recent study on both the consumption of seafood dishes and the seafood market in Bay City
. A nationwide study is also cited to support the argument which shows that more families are tend to eat in restaurants. However, the author fails to provide several evidences so that the argument is left unconvincing.
Firstly, with the absence of the consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City
restaurants five years ago, we are not sure that the increase of 30 percent is a large one. For example, if the average restaurants served seafood dishes 10 times per year five years ago, then 13 times are needed during this year. In this case, seafood is not popular enough to be taken as a specialty of a restaurant. Thus, without the evidence that there is a sharply increasing demand for seafood dishes in Bay City we can hardly say that the new Captain Seafood restaurant will be quite popular.
Besides, additional evidence is needed which can confirm that the two-income families in Bay City
tend to eat in the restaurant. Considering that the study cited by the author is a nationwide study, it is possible that few samples of the study are taken from Bay City. Therefore, we can not predict that eating outside and healthful eating is common in Bay City. Even if many families in Bay City often go out for a meal, crucial evidence is needed to demonstrate that most of them will choose seafood dishes. Unfortunately, there are no restaurants whose specialty is seafood now. That may just show that seafood dishes are not popular in Bay City.
Finally, even if seafood is popular, it is also too early to claim that the new Captain Seafood restaurant can get profits by it. Many extra costs should be taken into consideration, for example, the costs of processing and equipment. How much does the restaurant have to pay for the equipment which is used to keep the seafood fresh? How much does it cost to cook the seafood? What is more, how much will be paid for the sources such as water and electrical energy which may be much more than other restaurants? It is possible that the costs mentioned above are much more than the gain. Thus, we can not predict that the new Captain Seafood restaurant will be profitable until weighting both the costs and gains.
In sum, we need to have additional evidence in order to make sure that seafood is popular in Bay City
. We also need more information about how often the residents go out for a meal of seafood. What is more, only after weighting both the costs and gains can we make a conclusion that the new Captain Seafood restaurant will be quite popular and profitable. | 
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发表于 2012-5-22 18:51:55
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