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60) The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
In this letter, the client points out that wepredict an increase demand for heating oil and recommend investment inConsolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retailsale of home heating oil. To corroborate this prediction, the client cites thatmost home in the northeastern United States have traditionally used oil astheir major fuel for heating. The client also cites that the weather pattern as90 days with below-normal temperature will continue for several more years andmany new homes are being built. At first glance, the letter appears to besomehow plausible, close scrutiny of these evidences, however, reveals that ittends little credible support for the manager’s claim.
To begin with, by relying on the fact thatmost homes in the northeastern United States have traditionally used oil astheir major fuel for heating depend on the assumption that they will not changetheir traditional choice in the future. Yet the client provides no evidence toadvocate this assumption. It is possible that frequently fluctuated oil priceforces residences in those regions to change their habit of heating in order toreduce their living cost. Or perhaps the immigrated young people from otherregion brings advanced healing system to northeastern United States, thus theresidents will make an alternative choice. Without eliminating these possibilities,the client cannot rely on the fact to justify that the demand for heating oilwill increase in these areas.
Apart from that, the client assumes thatthe former trend that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperaturewill continue in the future. The client, however, fails to substantiate thisassumption. It is possible that the real temperature in last heating season isonly 2 centigrade below the normal temperature, thus such so-calledbelow-normal temperature does not impulses residence to increase their demandfor heating oil. Without considering this possible scenario, the client cannotassert that there will be an increase for heating oil in the future.
A third problem with the letter is thatwhether the many newly-built homes means an increased demand for heating oil.It is entirely possible that the homes are being built for immigrants and theyare likely to leave this area in winter. Or perhaps the newly-built houses areequipped advanced heating system instead of heating oil. Without ruling outsuch alternative possibilities, the client cannot reach that conclusion.
To sum up, the client fails to validate theconclusion. To solidify the argument, the client should provide more concreteevidence to demonstrate the conclusion. In addition, the client would have torule out the above mentioned possibilities that would undermine the claim.
提纲
1.家庭用heating oil的传统可能会改变
2.90天的below-normal temperature oversimplification 可能只是比normal低了2度
3.房子多了不一定用oil变大 |
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发表于 2012-5-14 21:54:41
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