The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
There are some logical errors among this memo.
Firstly, the memo mentioned that it was 90 days with below-normal temperatures last years in this region, and the forecasters predicted that the ‘bad weather’ will continue for several years. On the one hand, this memo did not mentioned the weather before last year, and there may be much more than 90 days’ below-normal temperatures before last year, which means last year’s weather is warmer than before though it was typically cold, and the warmer winter will go on next few years, so the cost of heating oil will decrease. On the other hand, even if last year’s weather was colder than before, there is no significant evidence can indicate the forecasters’ prediction is authority, so the assumption of the increasing of heating oil next several years is contradictable.
Secondly, we do not know what did ‘typically cold’ meant. There are no exactly data shown how much was the degree of the average temperatures and how much it less than the normal temperatures, maybe there are only one or even less than one degree under the normal-temperatures, people can hardly feel of that. So this evidence is insignificant to prove the conclusion what the company made.
Thirdly, there are many ways to increase the temperature inside the room. The memo did not show how many families will use some new technology to heat their room instead of the heating oil, and we do not know which way the new built homes choose to use, maybe these new-built families choose a newer and more efficient way to gain heat, and then they spread this technology to whole region, what caused a decreasing demand of heating oil, the disproof the evidence what the memo gave. ---30mim
The memo made a conclusion rudely with some logical leak, and these errors have probability cause a bad ending with increasing the supply of heating oil.
| 
京公网安备11010202008513号 京ICP证101109号 京ICP备12012021号
发表于 2012-4-17 00:29:53
收藏
收藏
