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Merely based on a series of unwarranted assumptions and dubious evidences, the arguer reaches a fallacious conclusion that Nature's Way(NW) tend to be profitable in Plainsville. However, profound scrutiny reveals that the author commits such logical flaws as cause and effect, hasty conclusion, insufficient investigation and analyses.
Citing the report of high sales of running shoes and excercising clothes, the arguer claims that people in Plainsville are leading healthy lives. While people who buy running shoes might be fond of running, the author does not effectively make a concrete connection between high sales and healthy lives. Other reasons which might lead to high sales of sports equipements are overlooked. Perhaps, the runing shoes and excercising clothes happens to be very popular at this time, and the trend will reverse after a few monthes. Or perhaps the high sales are due to the increasing sales to tourists. It is also possible that sports shoes and clothes are much cheaper than other clothes,thus people prefer to buy them. Without evidences to prove that these and other scenarios are unlikely, the reasoning is not sound.What's more, the vaguely usage of "high" is too subjective to insinuate the true level of sales. The local merchants might do a relatively small business, and they think the sales of 5000 dallors are high, which might be thought to be a low level by merchants from a different district. Unless a more sufficient analysis is made along with a more representative and valid survey, this argument is unconvincing.
In addition, to support his opinion, the arguer points out that the health clubs have more people and the schoolchildren are required to participate in a fitness-for-life program. The arguer hastily concludes that the people are leading healthy lives.However, a totally different situation might be possible. Perhaps so many people in Plainsville are leading unhealty lives that more and more people are getting overweight, thus the healty clubs including the weight trainning and aerobics classes are always full. It may also be true that the schoolchildren are requied to participate in a fitness-for-life program, just because the children are not interested in leading healthy lives. To make his arguement convincing, the arguer should provide more evidences concerning the living habits of the Plainsville people. The evidences used are too vague to be representative.
Even if it is true that the Plainsville people are leading healthy lives, it is unreasonable to indicate that they will be fond of buying healthy food and products. Perhaps they find regular excercises and club activations are already enough to help them keep healthy, and buying healthy food is just a waste of money. Even if people want to buy food and products, there is no evidence to show that they will buy them from NW. Perhaps there are already multiple healthy food stores in Plainsville which provide a better service than NW. People may want to buy from other shops which provide food with better tastes or just cheaper prices. Even if it is true that people now in Plainsville will surely buy from NW, it is likely that this trend will flutuate or reverse in the next few years.In these scenarios, people would not like to buy from NW. The auhor lacks a profund analyses of the consuming habits of the local people and the local market, thus the reasoning is not convincing.
To sum up, this argument is not sound since the evidences listed can not lend strong support to the conclusion. To gain credibility, the author should make a much more sufficient investigation and analyze all of the possible scenarios concerning the living and consumming habits of the Plainsville People. |
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发表于 2012-3-8 09:57:35
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