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60) The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
In the letter,the author predicts that the demand of heating oil will increase in several years in the northeast United States, and thus recommends his client to invest in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.To bolster his argument,the author points out the region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures last year.He also claims that many new homes are being built in the region.The argument seems somewhat convincing at the first glance,after a careful reflection,however, reveals it is fraught with vague information and unwarranted assumptions.
In the first place,based on the fact that the region has a heating-tradition of using oil as their major fuel, the author makes a poor assumption: the heating-tradition has remained the same and will not be changed in several years.However, there might be some possible factors influence the tradition. Perhaps with the development of science and technology, an environmentally clean energy will substitute for oil as their major fuel for heating.It is also possible that the residents there would have to change their current heating-tradition due to the persistently increasing surge of the price of the oil.Any of these factors, if true, will undermine the author's claim that the demand of oil will increase.
In the second place,lacking other information about the previous weather conditions and validity of the weather forecasters' prediction,the author hastily infers that the region will have a increased demand for oil.Even assuming that the weather forecasters were authoritative experts and their prediction was scientific and reliable,the inference is still not persuasive,in that the author fails to provide more information about the weather conditions of the past few year.Maybe the region experienced more than 90 days with below-normal temperatures before,if true,the temperature tends to increase,then the residents there will decrease their consumption of oil accordingly. Without more concrete information to rule out the possibility, the inference is still unconvincing.
In addition,the author unfairly assumes that many newly-built homes will certainly enhance the demand of oil,while no sufficient evidence is provided to prove it.Perhaps,the homes are especially designed as resort hotels for tourists,who visit here for its beautiful scenary in summer, thus there is no need to equip heating systems at all.Even though heating systems were needed, the homeowners might not choose oil as their major fuel of heating.
Last but not least,even though the demand of oil would increase in the region,it is still not rational for the client to invest the company, since there is no sufficient evidence to show the increased demand will absolutely raise the company's revenue.Perhaps, the company might not have the entire market all to itself and have little advantage over the others.What's more,the author pays more attention to the factors,which might increase the revenue,but neglects to take the costs and other occurrence into consideration.It is entirely possible that the operating costs would offset the revenue.Besides,some other occurrence,such as the unfavorable economic environment,may prevent the company from creating profits.If it is the case, it is obviously insane to make the investment.
In summary,both the prediction and the recommendation is of little credibility.To solidify his argument,the author would have to provide more information about the demand of heating oil in the region.In addition,the author should take both the revenue and the costs into consideration to make a much more reliable recommendation.
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发表于 2012-3-6 10:37:08
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