有点无厘头的argu 30 求拍

jasonliu119 · 发表于 2011-10-20 17:11:59

The following appeared as a recommendation by a committee planning a ten-year budget for the city of Calatrava. The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year’s birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago. Thus the number of students enrolled in
our public schools will soon decrease dramatically, and we can safely reduce the funds budgeted for education during the next decade. At the same time, we can reduce funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities. As a result, we will have sufficient money to fund city facilities and programs used primarily by adults, since we can expect the adult population of the city to increase.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

提纲
一、去年的情况不具代表性
二、学生的来源
三、成人也可以用facilities 不一定要减少

In this argument, the author advocates that the government of Calatrava should reduce the funds budged for education by claiming that the number of the students may decrease in the future. It seems reasonable to agree with the author before a close scrutiny; however, in order to better evaluate the author's recommendation, we need more valid and clear evidence.

To begin with, more evidence should be presented to predict the future trend of the population in this city. In this argument, the author claimed that last year's birthrate was only one-half of five years ago; yet only last year's situation is a limited example which should not used to establish a generalization in the future. Maybe a surprising economic crisis happened in the year before last year; hence, the couples were less willing to give birth to children. However, if the economic crisis can be solved by effective methods in the near future, they may change their mind and want to have babies. If that is the case, the funding to the public education in Calatrava should not be reduced because the small birthrate existed only in a short period. Only with strong evidence to rule out all the explanations like the one above can the argument become reliable.

Even if the author can give us valid and sufficient evidence to predict the future trend in the city's population, the second evidence for us to fully assess this argument is information about where the students in their public schools come from. Given the number of the students who live in the city may decrease in the next decade, the total number of the students may remain the same or even increase for there may be students from the neighboring cities. The limited information of the students born in this city can't be used a well indicator for the whole population of students in the Calatrava's schools. Unless the author can consider this issue and offer sufficient evidence to rule out this situation, the recommendation to reduce educational budget seems cursory and unpersuasive.

Moreover, even if enough evidence can be offered to convince me that the total number of students will decrease, another group of evidence should be provided to support the author's suggestion that reduce funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities. Common sense tells me that this kind of facilities in a city is for a wide range of the public in a city; not only the students but also their parents as well as the retiring old people can benefit from these facilities. Reducing the financial support for this may be considered unfair and impolitic by the public. Without giving evidence showing the main users of these playing fields and other recreational facilities, by no means can the author draw a conclusion that less funding should be made.

To sum up, without so many pieces of crucial evidence mentioned above, the argument is ungrounded as it stands. To fully bolster his argument and convince the readers that the city should reduce the related funding mentioned, the author should provide more valid, clear and substantiated evidence as well as to present more rigid reasoning.

29min 525worlds

竹林中人 · 发表于 2011-10-20 19:05:52

Good！坚持

jasonliu119 · 发表于 2011-10-26 19:58:56

谢谢竹板，求拍~~~

ppguo · 发表于 2011-10-27 01:25:13

我来拍拍吧。
1. 去年的数据怎么就不具有代表性呢？我觉得这个攻击点不是说数据是去年的，而是说出生率下降不等于每年的新生儿数量也在下降。有可能由于人口的增长，新生儿是每年增加很多多，虽然出生率减少了。
2. 你的第三点非常没有说服力。题目中都说了，要减少学生的设施，增加成人的设施。这个攻击点应该是在 a) 即使需要减少学生的设施，那么一定有必要增加成人的设施吗？b) 如果真的这个地方的新生儿越来越少，那么势必也会导致成人越来越少，就更没有必要增加成人设施了。

竹林中人 · 发表于 2011-10-27 07:24:15

ppguo好人啊

ppguo · 发表于 2011-10-27 22:30:59

赫赫~~

有点无厘头的argu 30 求拍

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