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几组申请人的录取几率

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发表于 2011-6-24 16:14:02 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式
Part II 在8楼



转自
http://poetsandquants.com/2011/06/23/handicapping-your-shot-at-a-top-school/
http://poetsandquants.com/2011/07/01/part-ii-your-chances-of-getting-in/4/








介绍一下原作者:Sanford Kreisberg,自称HBSGuru(HBS大师),是美国颇有名气的MBA申请顾问。常去WB MBA forum的人应该知道他。

简略翻译一下。如不准,需要高人修正。


Mr. Perfect
-750+ GMAT
-3.8 Grade Point Average
-Ivy League Undergraduate Degree(美国藤校+Stanford等高等私立学校)
-Work experience at Goldman Sachs or McKinsey & Co
-Extracurricular includes alumni involvement(热爱母校+乐于帮助校友)and very active participation in an ethnic identity organization(少数人种或相关)

Odds of Success
-Harvard Business School: 85%
-Stanford: 80%
-Wharton: 90%
-Tuck: 95%
-Kellogg: 95%

The biggest risk this person has of not getting into HBS or Stanford is screwing up the interview, especially at HBS where the interview counts. (It does not count at Stanford in any meaningful way.) I am assuming the recommendations are in line and this applicant does not have a secret hater out there. HBS and Stanford, of course, love to reject kids like this, just so they can say they do. But they rarely do.
Another danger, though rare, is just going a bit weird on the application through a combination of odd and unsupported goals, annoying and naïve enthusiasms, or just plain stupidity. Stanford could reject a kid like this if the ‘what matters most to you’ essay is a blatant and unreflective brag sheet.
Mr. Perfect进不了H&S的主要原因有
1 面试失败
2 推荐人背地使坏
3 倒霉
4 明显不合格的application package

As to Wharton, Tuck and Kellogg, the issue is not blowing the interview and the related issue of convincing them that you are not using them as safety schools. If this kid really wants to go to Kellogg, he should apply very early. Otherwise, they will make the guess that the applicant is somehow toxic to Harvard, Stanford and Wharton.
Mr. Perfect进不了W&T&K的原因
1 面试失败
2 让W&T&K感觉它们是safety schools。避免的方法是提早申请。




Mr. UnderAchiever(UnderAchiever – 没有发挥全部潜能的人)
-720 GMAT
-3.1 Grade Point Average
-Ivy League Undergraduate Degree
-Work experience at Raytheon as financial analyst(Raytheon是美国最大的国防公司之一。)
-Average extracurricular activities

Odds of Success:
-Harvard Business School: 10%+
-Stanford: 10%
-Wharton: Less than 10%
-Columbia: 35% if early decision
-Kellogg: 30%
-Duke: 55%+

He’s a long shot for Harvard because he’ll never overcome his low GPA. Raytheon is not a sexy company. That’s a bad job for a smart guy and a great job for a first-generation college grad. This guy can only save himself by getting a job elsewhere at a Google, Apple, or Microsoft and thriving there and then pumping up the extras. Basically, guys like this don’t get into Wharton either because they are below par on both the GPA and GMAT or there is no counter reason to take them. Columbia might take this guy if he could prove New York reasons and goals, which grew out of his work and maybe had an alternative transcript. This seems in the Duke wheelhouse, especially if he is older.
不想翻译。只想强调一点,Raytheon每年录取很多毕业生,因为政府给补助(帮助大学生就业)。公司文化比较慵懒松散。很多paperwork,很好混日子。很多时候公司从政府要钱,然后把活给小公司做。由于公司从政府捞很多钱,所以工资不低,福利很好;所以很多人早退休,导致很多人年纪轻轻就能进管理层。
这种工作背景,配上GPA和GMAT,Mr. UnderAchiever很难进好学校。




Ms. First Generation(家里第一代大学生)
-720 GMAT
-4.0 Grade Point Average
-Undergraduate degree from the University of Maryland(不错的公立大学。东部的UCB/UCLA。)
-Work experience at Raytheon as financial analyst
-Average extracurricular activities
-First generation college graduate(第一代大学生。坛里有多少?)

Odds of Success:
-Harvard Business School: 50% to 80%
-Wharton: 50% to 90%
-Chicago Booth: 75% to 95%
-Dartmouth: 65% to 85%
-Duke: 95%

She has the same so-so job as the other guy, but in her case, it is considered a step up, and adcoms know that even 4.0s coming out of Maryland don’t get Wall Street gigs in most cases. Her 4.0 GPA as a first generation college grad really makes a difference here. The fact that she’s female improves her odds by five to ten percentage points. As always, her chances at non-Harvard, Stanford Wharton schools depend on her convincing them that she is serious about them, by visiting, meeting other students, and having solid personal and professional reasons to attend.
和Mr. UnderAchiever不同,Ms. First Generation背景贫寒,机遇不多。但是她的4.0GPA证明她的努力。再加上她的性别,申请成功率上涨5~10%。




Ms. Sotheby’s(Sotheby’s是英国高档的古董艺术品拍卖公司。Ms. Sotheby’s应该是泛指公关性质的白领。)
-690 GMAT
-3.4 Grade Point Average
-Undergraduate degree from Barnard College(比较有名的私立女校)
-Work experience at Sotheby’s
-Extracurricular involvement in art(课余活动和工作很相关)

Odds of Success:
-Harvard Business School: Less than 50%
-Stanford: Less than 40%
-Wharton: Less than 50%
-Chicago Booth: 60%
-Columbia: 60%+ if early decision
-Kellogg: 60%

HBS has a pot for this kind of cream but it is pretty small and usually requires a higher GPA. Other schools might fall for the glamour and imagine on their websites in front of an old master painting, as an implicit advertisement saying, ‘there are more than just wonks and nerds here.’ Booth goes for this type, and if the application were solid and the PowerPoint was tingling, well, why not? I go for this type myself.
很多重视多元化的学校会录取Ms. Sotheby’s,因为可以证明自己是多元化学校。同时也可以激发男生的斗志吧?




Twin Brothers From India
First Brother:

-740 GMAT
-3.5 Grade Point Average in U.S. terms
-Undergraduate degree from Indian Institute of Technology
-Work experience at INFOSYS and Dell Computer as engineer(多句嘴,INFOSYS是印度的IT公司。)
-Average extracurricular activities

Odds of Success:
-Harvard Business School: 50%
-Wharton: 65+%
-Columbia: 70% if early admission
-Tuck: 80%
-Chicago Booth: 80%

Second Brother:
-740 GMAT
-3.9 Grade Point Average
-Undergraduate degree from the University of Michigan
-Work experience at McKinsey & Co.
-Average extracurricular activities

Odds of Success:
-Harvard Business School: 70%+
-Wharton: 80%+
-Columbia: 80%+
-Tuck: 85%+
-Chicago Booth: 85%+

The brother who stays home is at a disadvantage. It would have helped if he had a sexy job, but he doesn’t. INFOSYS is a good job, but Dell is not a tier-one feeder to HBS the way that Apple, Microsoft, and Google are. The Dell cohort at HBS usually have real nosebleed stats or powerful people at Dell who support them because of extraordinary accomplishments.
老二突出的地方是他在美国读过书,可能在McK的某个美国办公室上班。
INFOSYS的工作比较适合申请MBA,因为它有咨询的性质。Dell比较不受商校的青睐。

The McKinsey brother gets McKinsey odds everywhere, which are very high. He’s in the wheelhouse as long as he executives well on the application and recommendations. The way he does not get in is interview upset or really low performance at McKinsey.
McK的工作经验对申请任何商校都有很大的帮助。有McK经验还会申请失败的主要原因有
1 Essay没写好
2 推荐信不好
3 面试失败




Mr. Near Ivy
-630 GMAT
-3.9 Grade Point Average
-Near Ivy Public – Michigan, Virginia, Berkeley
-Work experience at Near Ivy consulting firm– Accenture, Booz, IBM
-Average extracurricular activities

Odds of Success:
-Harvard Business School: Less than 20%
-Stanford: Less than 10%
-Wharton: Less than 15%
-Michigan: 30% to 50%
-Duke: 40% to 50%
-Kellogg: 30% to 45%

The GMAT is way too low for Harvard, Stanford and Wharton. HBS would wink at a 620 in some cases, if there were another positive story some place. HBS admits from non-tier one consulting companies happen, but the stats are usually rock solid and there is a gender, identity-politics story as well in the background.
At any rate, for all schools, this applicant should take the GMAT twice to show seriousness. This seems impossible at Wharton unless there is some explanation for the low GMAT based on identity politics. Other schools will need evidence that the GMAT is not a fair reflection of his chance of success.”
不知道为什么Sanford要把GMAT设那么低。GPA3.9的人不会用630GMAT去申请。
一流弱学校+一流弱工作,需要多元化(性别人种等等)来加分。




总结一下:
名校喜欢已经成功的人。
如果不是Mr. Perfect,需要多元化+努力。
多元化可以理解为非主流。努力需要证据,比如高分,
比如上夜校或培训班。
最后,名校喜欢占山头。你爬到珠穆朗玛峰(8000m),可以进HBS。你爬到峨嵋山峰(4000m),也可以进HBS。名校喜欢每个山头都有自己的旗。所以非主流爬到顶也能进名校。Define your peak and prove you can reach it.




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沙发
发表于 2011-6-24 16:36:41 | 只看该作者
这个很有参考价值, 大体就是GMAT+工作质量(雇主名称+表现)+本科学校+ESSAY和面试+多元化(性别,种族,独特行业和其他诡异的经历), 这5个大指标每个都有补充的机会,比如GMAT考不高可以多考直到考高, 工作可以换直到最好, 本科学校或GPA可以再读个MASTER改进等等, 这么看还是挺公平的, 不知道中国申请人这个POOL怎么评估的~~
板凳
发表于 2011-6-24 23:04:52 | 只看该作者
非常有意思的帖子啊。。。
地板
发表于 2011-6-25 02:46:46 | 只看该作者
这个是在坛子里看到最有趣的一个贴了~
5#
发表于 2011-6-25 03:17:46 | 只看该作者
....工作换到最好还申请个毛的MBA
6#
发表于 2011-6-25 04:54:41 | 只看该作者
嗯,俺感觉这个比那个评分表格更实用

而且给出的都是一些typical applicant bkg的例子分析结果
7#
发表于 2011-6-25 09:59:43 | 只看该作者
good stuff!
8#
发表于 2011-6-28 14:11:46 | 只看该作者
谢谢分享!
9#
 楼主| 发表于 2011-7-5 16:31:39 | 只看该作者
Mr. State Legislature (州立法委员)
-740 GMAT
-2.89 GPA
-Undergraduate degree in physics/sociology from a nearIvy public university(非工程、会计等常见专业)
-Work experience in a state legislature(州立政府工作经验)
-Extracurricular involvement in political campaigns(州竞选中的志愿者)

Odds of Success
-Harvard Business School: 20%
-Michigan: 50%
-Duke: 60%
-Texas: 70%
-North Carolina: 65%

Sandy’s Analysis: “Harvard Business School takespols, but usually from the White House or the Treasury Department, and thosekids usually have stellar records at Ivies and superb schmoozing abilities.Your chances at other schools you note depend on what your actual role is inthe state legislature, what state (is it a state in which the school islocated?), and who can push buttons for you. If none of that, GMAT might neutralizeGPA and with sharp execution on your applications, you stand a chance atseveral of these schools.”
HBS录取有政府工作经验的人,不过一般是在白宫或财政部工作的人。一般能进白宫或财政部的人都有很出色的纪录。
申请成功的关键在于:
1、你的实际function
2、在哪个州工作?是否是申请学校所在的州?如果你在加州工作,然后去申请HBS,HBS会怀疑你对工作的热情吧?
3、谁帮你写推荐信。




Ms. Hospitality(公关性质的女白领)
-660 GMAT
-3.7 Grade Point Average
-Undergraduate degree in art and communication fromUC-San Diego(OK的公立大学的比较简单的专业)
-Work experience in marketing at a well-respectedinternational hospitality design firm(比较有名的公关firm的marketing)
-Strong extracurricular involvement in ethnic identityorganization and some involvement in other organizations(参加过少数族裔的活动组织)

Odds of Success
-Harvard Business School: 20% or less
-Columbia: 40% to 55%, if you apply early admission
-New York University: 55% to 70%
-Chicago Booth: 40% to 60%
-Michigan: 40% to 50%

Sandy’s Analysis: “A 3.7 is good, but your GMAT islow-ish and your current job does not sound selective. Having a hard-to-getjob—one where you can be compared to other rising hot shots—is another one ofthose dirty little secrets of the admissions game(有一个录取竞争力强的工作很重要!!!). Your chances atHarvard are remote. Booth takes kids like you with solid execution. NYU iswary, but apply. Not Ross. A lot will depend on what schools think of yourcurrent job in terms of selectivity and as a platform for your goals.”
Ms. Hospitality和Ms. Sotheby’s很相像。区别在于,Ms. Sotheby’s的工作经验比较独特(艺术界),而Ms. Hospitality的是marketing。Conventionalvs. unconventional的差别还是挺大的。




Mr. Canada
-710 GMAT
-3.93 GPA Undergraduate degree from a Canadian university
-3.72 Graduate GPA from a very good Canadian university
-Work experience with a small analytics consultingcompany
-Extracurricular involvement in leadership positions onstudent council and student clubs; awards in business case competitions(大学时组织过很多活动;casestudy的冠军)

Odds of Success
-Harvard: 35% to 50%
-Stanford: Less than 35%
-Wharton: Less than 50%
-Kellogg: 50% to 60%
-Tuck: 50%

Sandy’s Analysis: “Your GMAT, GPA and schooling arefine, but I ask you to consider the dirty little secret mentioned above: ‘Howselective is your job?’ and  what is the history of your firm sending kidsto business school? Harvard, Wharton and Stanford respect analytics firms,especially the big blue chip firms like Nera, CRA and Rand, but less so thesmaller firms. That might not be a deal breaker, but it will be a big hurdle.If your firm does not have a record of employee admission success, you willhave a real burden in explaining how selective it is, and who the owners are,and what projects the firm has done. Lack of interesting extras and no-namefirm might be too much to overcome at H/W/S but solid other stuff might do youfine at most other schools.”
个人认为这个profile和很多国内申请人接近。很有名的学校毕业,但是公司和单位并不outstanding,至少名气不大;尽管你的工作是typicalpre-MBA jobs: Engr, Acct, Consulting, IB。这是进H/W/S的最大障碍。
需要花很多精力解释工作:你的公司有多大的名气,你的工作有多难申请,你的职位有多种要,……




Mr. Science
-720 GMAT
-3.3 Grade Point Average
-Doctorate of Pharmacy from reputable program(医药学博士,不错的program)
-Work experience at a large pharmaceutical company(制药公司的工作)
-Extracurricular includes alumni involvement and veryactive participation in an ethnic identity organization(很多校友和少数族裔的活动)

Odds of Success
-Harvard Business School: Less than 40%
-Stanford: Less than 40%
-Wharton: 35% to 50%
-Columbia: 50% to 65%
-Kellogg: 50% to 65%

Sandy’s Analysis: “Hmmmm. There is a PhD cohort at Harvard,Wharton and Stanford, but it more often includes PhDs in biology, chemistry,computer science, etc. Given that you went to pharma, though, you might beconsidered in that cohort. A dirty secret here is where you got the PhD. Yousay ‘reputable program,’ but Harvard, Stanford and Wharton almost limit PhDadmits to top programs, so that is one issue. GPA is another. That combinedwith a degree in an off-track discipline like pharmacy could be a real cloud onyour application.
“I’d say chances at Harvard/Stanford are less than 50percent and at Wharton chances are 35% to 60% depending on execution and whatyou in fact do at that pharma company and how well you segue that into yourgoals. As for non-H/W/S schools, you are a maybe. They take guys like you,unless you’re just dishing out pills.”
H/W/S录取一定数量的博士,主要是生物、化学、编程、医药、等理科。
如果你的Pharm D is from很好的大学(Harvard, John Hopkins,UCSF),H/W/S可能不会录取你,因为你已经很强了。不过如果你在不错的学校读博(UCSD,Purdue),进H/W/S的可能性相比比较大。
先读PhD再读MBA有一个难点:如何解释为什么你要转行业、为什么你当初要读PhD。学校,还有你以后申请的公司,可能会以为你太喜欢大学环境了(书呆子)。
申请其它的学校,看运气。



Mr. Career Changer
-750 GMAT
-3.49 GPA
-Undergraduate degree in civil engineering from a goodstate school(不错的州立大学)
-3.70 Graduate GPA from same school (but did not finishthesis)(读硕,没有论文;或读博,没有写完论文)
-Recently launched a website on investing/economics and amath/physics educational channel on YouTube(有自己的网站和youku空间,做视频解说经济、投资、数、理)
-Extracurricular involvement includes significantleadership roles(很强的leadership)
-Speak three languages fluently(三语,熟练)

Odds of Success
-Harvard Business School: Less than 30%
-Stanford: Less than 30%
-CEIBS: 60% to 70%
-INSEAD: Better than 50%
-Brigham Young: 60% to 70%

Sandy’s Analysis: “This is a case where you havedone great things, but some things in the real world weigh much less on planetadcom. To wit, your YouTube lark, especially since you have zilch employmenthistory. Your website about “investing/economics” is another one of those ideasthat sound exciting but there are too many similar crackpot websites on bothinvesting and economics out there. And that is not a topic which screams out‘future leader,’ although it may scream out ‘future rich weird guy who owns asports team.’ Don’t get me wrong. I’m impressed, but schools may wonder if youare the type of guy who likes to do things alone in his room rather than withothers. I also am not seeing a clear need for an MBA here. What do you want todo? Do you really need an MBA?
“For those reasons, I am estimating your Harvard/Stanfordchances at less than 30%, unless you can put all this together in someconvincing and impactful way, which includes need for an MBA as part of thepicture. Other schools you mention might accept you based on the simple factthat you are probably smarter than their average student and might beinteresting to have around. Yes, dropping out of graduate school will be anegative. That confirms your ‘bad’ profile as a lone gunman. In your case,shooting stocks and YouTubes.”
没有工作经验:没有实际经验+not a team player
自己的网站和youku空间:不能取代工作经验



Ms. Peace Corps (和平组织)
-750 GMAT
-3.74 GPA
-Undergraduate degree from a near-Ivy public university
-Work experience as a Peace Corps business advisor inHonduras with two and one-half years as a strategy consultant with DeloitteConsulting(在洪多拉斯志愿实习过+Deloitte)
-Extracurricular involvement as a three-time All-Americanwomen’s rugby player and a one-time USA under-23 team member(英式橄榄: 国家队队员,somethinglike that)
-Minimal volunteering, but nothing too exciting.

Odds of Success
-Harvard Business School: Better than 50%
-Stanford: Better than 50%
-Wharton (Lauder program): 60%
-Chicago: 70% to 80%
-Kellogg: 60% to 80%

Sandy’s Analysis: “H/S/W could happen. You check allthe boxes, and everyone loves the Peace Corps. Also Deloitte is a known feederto the schools you’ve selected, especially the business analyst program. Andextraordinary athletic success is always a plus. Is Deloitte sponsoring you?”
GPA和GMAT很好。Under很有名。Peace Corps(HBS很喜欢)+DeloitteConsulting=很强的工作经验。Playing Sports = Hard working + Motivation +Competitiveness + Discipline 。女人。









Mr. Hampton (富二代)
(He’s already applied and is going to the University ofVirginia’s Darden School, but requests feedback as to why he didn’t get intoHarvard, Stanford and Wharton.)
-660 GMAT
-3.5 GPA
-Undergraduate degree from a state school
-Work experience in a non-glamorous industry

Odds of Success
-Rejected by Harvard
-Rejected by Stanford
-Rejected by Wharton
-Waitlisted at Dartmouth Tuck
-Full ride at Virginia Darden

Sandy’s Analysis: “Sounds right to me. Your dreamscan come true at Darden, and you did better than I would have predicted thereso you must have something going for you.”
差不多就这样。











总结一下,就几个字:
1.      Accomplishment
2.      Competitiveness
3.      Uniqueness
4.      Diversity
10#
发表于 2011-7-5 20:26:13 | 只看该作者
非常不错,很有代表性!
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