申请Wharton，GMAT和录取的关系

准备写Wharton的essay之前，我研究了一下Wharton的录取情况，发现了一个情理之中，意料之外的事实：

Wharton的录取和GMAT成绩是无关的 （based on Wharton 06 profile and director Thomas Caleel's talks).

实际上官方说法就是GMAT只是录取中的一个数据点，此为情理之中。不过好多申请人（包括我在内）都觉得

GMAT的分数越高，录取的可能就越大，这是意料之外。推理过程下文在表。

Wharton 06 class profile:

Applicant total: 6189

Applicant admitted: 1165

Applicant rejected: 5024

Admitted GMAT mean: 713

Admitted GMAT 80% range: 660-760

# Admitted GMAT > 760: 116

# Admitted GMAT < 660: 116

Source: http://www.wharton.upenn.edu/mba/community/classprofile/

According to Wharton Director's talk, the following statistics is available for 06 admission:

"last year we denied over 2,000 candidates with GMAT 700 and higher and almost 800 applicants with GMAT of 750 and above."

So the rejected applicants fall into three categories:

# of 750+ : almost 800 = let's use 790

# of 700-750: over 2000 - almost 800 = let's use 1250

# of < 700: 5024-1250-790 = 2984

There are some room for error here. It is a fuzzy matter anyway. I will cook the best meal with whatever is available. 

For the 80% range of admitted applicant, let's adjust the range a little bit to get the 750 cutoff we need to use later:

660-760 => 80% range

Assume normal distribution on GMAT score (another fuzzy situation, bear with me )

750-760 => 5% range

So Admitted GMAT range:

670 - 750 => 70% range

Admitted 750+ number = 175

Are you still with me? The next post is the conclusion.

Don't you have better things to do...

Forgot to calculate the 700-710 range. Again use the same Normal Distribution

assumption (with large sample size, this assumption is not bad)

Number of admitted in 700-710 GMAT range is 10% of all admitted: 117

So here is the final result:

GMAT        Admit #      Rej #    Admission %

750+        175          790              18%

700-750     524          1250             29%

<700        466          2984             14%

Total       1165         5024

So it is almost a disadvantage to be over 750

yaoyao: this is actually fun part of the admission.

You can see there are plenty fuzzy stuff here. The result can be swayed left and right based on different estimates. However I think it is correct to say:

high GMAT doesn't yield high admission possibility.

My take on this result is:

People having high GMAT tend to be too comfortable on the misleading GMAT and focused less on the essay writing. So this is a kick in the head for people GMAT > 750

People with low GMAT know they need to work hard on essay to compensate the GMAT problem. Actually they catch up just fine in the admission game.

So be your self and work on your essay regardless of GMAT score.

Oh, forgot one:

The source for Wharton Director's talk:

The range estimate between 700-710 and 750-760 is based on quantile calculation using R (pnorm, qnorm etc). Let me know if I made a mistake somewhere. Thanks.