LSAT-0110-1-23

23.   Some statisticians claim that the surest way to increase the overall correctness of the total set of one’s beliefs is: never change that set, except by rejecting a belief when given adequate evidence against it. However, if this were the only rule one followed, then whenever one were presented with any kind of evidence, one would have to either reject some of one’s beliefs or else leave one’s beliefs unchanged. But then, over time, one could only have fewer and fewer beliefs. Since we need many beliefs in order to survive, the statisticians’ claim must be mistaken.

The argument is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that it

(A) presumes, without providing any justification, that the surest way of increasing the overall correctness of the total set of one’s beliefs must not hinder one’s ability to survive

(B) neglects the possibility that even while following the statisticians’ rule, one might also accept new beliefs when presented with some kinds of evidence

(C) overlooks the possibility that some large sets of beliefs are more correct overall than are some small sets of beliefs

(D) takes for granted that one should accept some beliefs related to survival even when given adequate evidence against them（A）

(E) takes for granted that the beliefs we need in order to have many beliefs must all be correct beliefs

请教本题思路.

顶一下.

这题还是不明白.

I think the correct answer is A.

The argument tries to weaken the statistician's claim not

by saying it doesn't work, but by saying if the statisticians' claim

is followed, one will have less ability to survive.

So if we don't care about the person survives or not, the statistician's claim is correct -- less beliefs, but higher percentage of correct beliefs.