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The following is a recommendation from the Board of Directors of Monarch Books.
"We recommend that Monarch Books open a café in its store. Monarch, having been in business at the same location for more than twenty years, has a large customer base because it is known for its wide selection of books on all subjects. Clearly, opening the café would attract more customers. Space could be made for the café by discontinuing the children's book section, which will probably become less popular given that the most recent national census indicated a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten. Opening a café will allow Monarch to attract more customers and better compete with Regal Books, which recently opened its own café."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
It might seem logical, at first glance, to agree with the author’s argument that opening a café in the book store would attract more customers. However, it order to fully evaluate this recommendation, we need to have a significant amount of additional evidence. The argument could end up being much weaker than it seems, or it might be actually quite valid. For the purpose of making that determination, we need to know more and then analyze it.
The first question that we need to address is information about whether or not discontinuing the children’s book selection for the open of café will obtain the effects as the author supposes. It’s possible that the group of children constitute the majority part of the customer base. If the store eliminate this space, it would lost a great amount of customers and suffer from harm for both profits and reputation. Therefore, without providing us with sufficient evidence to convince that deprivation of children’s space and selection will not affect their operation, we cannot accept the author’s recommendation.
Another question that needs to solve before making this policy involves the survey. The author induces the national survey to prove that children will less patronize bookstores and children’s book selection will not popular. Nevertheless, it could turn out that this store is affected by the decline of percentage of children under age 10 because the density of children is this area is higher than others. Or perhaps there are still a lot of children going here to read books for its great selection of types of books that appeal to children though the percentage do reduce, but still within the acceptance. If so, such national survey may mislead the author to adopt a wrong change. Thus, the author has to offer more evidence to lend support the survey, or this recommendation is not tenable.
Last, even if the former questions have been fully replied, the evidence from the comparison with Regal books is still far from clear. The mere fact that Regal books attract more customers by its new café, this success may not be duplicated on the Monarch. Perhaps residents in this area have not penchants for café but tea, and thus this new store is not enough to appeal to them. Or perhaps Regal also not achieves its original objective by make such transformation, and suffer from the café’s loss. Consequently, without ruling out other possible policies that best adapt to the store or convincing Regal gain success that can be duplicated by the store, we may not advocate the author’s recommendation.
In sum, to convince that the children space should be replaced by the cafe, the author has to do nothing but providing more explanations and strengthen the assumptions by answering proposed questions and scrutinize the argument carefully. Otherwise, the recommendation made in this memo is weak and can be easily toppled.
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发表于 2013-2-23 00:37:50
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