大瓶颈！真心求教如何思考Argument的提纲

麻倉枼 · 发表于 2012-12-15 15:52:26

我不知道怎么说好，我就举个例子然后各位评价一下我的错误吧。。还有希望有人能够说明下正确的思考方法吧。。谢谢大家。。

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West Egg VS. Garbage Landfill
The following appeared in a memorandum written by the chairperson of the West Egg Town Council.
"Two years ago, consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years. During the past two years, however, the town's residents have been recycling twice as much material as they did in previous years. Next month the amount of recycled material—which includes paper, plastic, and metal—should further increase, since charges for pickup of other household garbage will double. Furthermore, over 90 percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future. Because of our town's strong commitment to recycling, the available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
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Evidence:
1. Two years ago, Consultants predicted that West Egg’s landfill would be filled within five years.

2. The town’s residents have been recycling twice as much material as they did in previous years during the past two years.

3. Next month the amount of recycled material should further increase due to charges for pickup of other household garbage will double.

4. Over 90 percent of respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future.

Recommendation:
1. The available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted.

提纲：
1. Ever since the year that the consultant made up the prediction, the town's residents have been recycling twice as much material as they did in previous years.

There are no reliable records proving how many residents have been recycling; the numbers of people who recycle the material could be very small comparing with the fact that nobody was recycling in the previous years.

2. The evidence that charges for pickup of other household garbage will double does not directly related to the increasing amount of recycled material of paper, plastic, and metal;

Besides, the number of some other materials which are not able to recycled can be increased;

3. Over 90 percent of respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future, but the memo fails to prove if the survey is reliable and the respondents are the representative to do the survey.

Perhaps the respondents are just youngsters who are in the elementary schools.

And the number of respondents who take the survey is unknown, which there makes the survey unreliable to be believed.

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