The following appeared in a memo from the marketing director of Top Dog Pet Stores.
"Five years ago Fish Emporium started advertising in the magazine Exotic Pets Monthly. Their stores saw sales increase by 15 percent after their ads began appearing in the magazine. The three Fish Emporium stores in Gulf City saw an even greater increase than that. Because Top Dog Pet Stores is based in Gulf City, it seems clear that we should start placing our own ads in Exotic Pets Monthly. If we do so, we will be sure to reverse the recent trend of declining sales and start making a profit again."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The memo of Top Dog Pet Stores’ marketing director did some survey and have a conclusion that placing their ads in Exotic Pets Monthly could make some help for their sales and profit. Since the evidences the memo gave are with some logical leaks, nobody should agree with the conclusion rashly.
In the first place, there are no evidence shows the increase of the sales are the result of the ads on Exotic Pets Monthly. There are a lot of other situations such as more pets are kept during these years, and the 15 percent increase is under the average level of the increase whole town’s stores. Another possibly situation is the Fish Emporium sells more goods in these years or sells them with a lower price, and they gain fewer profit with the increase of sales, and that is not the goal of the Top Dog Pet Store.
In the second place, we do not know the exactly cost of the ads, and we also do not know the ads will bring how much profit to the Top Dog Pet Store. Namely, we can exact compute if the ads is worthy, or it will decrease the profit or even cause the deficit of the Top Dog Pet Store. And there is a contrast possible situation is most of the customers of the Top Dog Pet Store hate the ads, and they will not come again since they saw the ad. It should not be decided without the exact data about the cost and efficiency.
In the third place, no evidence shows that the Top Dog Pet Store is comparable with the Fish Emporium. There is nothing about what these two store sales. Ads, are effective for some kinds of goods and stores, are sometimes come out a controverse result in some other region. It should be think about times and carefully to make a decision while there are such less evidences.
While making a decision, peoples should do enough survey to get conditions and evidences as much as possible. Since there are so many questionable points with so little useful data the marketing director mentioned, as discussed, it should not make a decision to place ads inExotic Pets Monthly so rashly.—28min.
| 
京公网安备11010202008513号 京ICP证101109号 京ICP备12012021号
发表于 2012-4-17 00:28:41
收藏
收藏
