第一篇Argument 请大家评分

jdy8511 · 发表于 2012-3-4 20:32:11

1. The following appeared as part of an annual report sent to stockholders by Olympic Foods, a processor of frozen foods.“Over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient. In color film processing, for example, the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 cents for one-day service in 1984. The same principle applies to the processing of food. And since Olympic Foods will soon celebrate its twenty-fifth birthday, we can expect that our long experience will enable us to minimize costs and thus maximize profits.”

1 false analogy 第二个说
2 incomplete thought(cost, profit and revenue) 第三个说
3 long experience does not necessarily lead to better learning of how to do things.
4 not sufficient evidence to substantiate the cost falling in film processing results from better learnig (or Non sequitur) （第一个说）

52660分钟第一次写

Based on merely unfounded assumption and dubious evidence, the statement draws a conclusion that the cost of processing of Olympic Foods will be minimized for its 25-year-old experience. To substantiate the conclusion, the arguer points out evidence that cost in color film processing fell from 50 cents to 20 cents in 1984 and he believes the pleasing outcome will occur in frozen foods area likewise. In addition, he indicates that 25-year experience will lead to a better understanding of how to do business well, and then help minimize costs and thus maximize profits. At first glance, the author’s argument appears to be somewhat convincing, but further reflection reveals that it omits some substantial concerns that should be addressed to substantiate the argument. In my point of view, this argument suffers from three logical flaws.

For one thing, the arguer fails to establish the causal relationship between the falling cost in processing and better understanding of how to do things well. This argument is unacceptable unless there is compelling evidence to support the connection between these two events. Perhaps, for example, the cost falling results from development of high-level technology or introduction of new equipments for processing line that also contribute to a higher efficiency.

Second, even if the above cause-effect relationship definitely exists, the arguer’s recommendation relies on what might be a poor analogy between food processing and color film processing. The analogy falsely depends on the assumption that the characteristics of processing and materials in both areas are similar. However, it is entirely possible that they are different ones. In short, without accounting for important possible differences between food processing and color film processing, the arguer cannot reasonably prove the proposed method will work.

Finally, granted that food processing and color film processing share a varieties of common factors that could make an analogy an appropriate one, and what is more, the cost can dramatically decrease because of better learning of how to handle the business, the conclusion that long period of experience will enable them to maximize the profits is unwarranted. Profit is factor of not only cost, but also revenue. It is entirely possible that the revenue of Olympic Foods will decrease together with the cost to the same extent that would leave a stable profit comparable to the last year. Besides, a myriad of other possible occurrence, such as unfavorable economic conditions, might prevent products of the company from being as profitable in the foreseeable futures as the argument predicts.

To sum up, this arguer fails to substantiate the claim that Olympic Foods will gain larger profits due to a falling cost, because the evidences cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer would have to provide more information with regard to the relationship between the better understanding of the business and the lowering cost in food processing area. Additionally, he would have to demonstrate that the revenue of the company will not drop increasingly or be seriously influenced by poor economic environment. Therefore, if the argument had included the given factors discussed above, it would have been more thorough and logically acceptable.

jdy8511 · 发表于 2012-3-6 19:32:47

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第一篇Argument 请大家评分

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