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7. The following is a recommendation from the Board of Directors of Monarch Books.
"We recommend that Monarch Books open a café in its store. Monarch, having been in business at the same location for more than twenty years, has a large customer base because it is known for its wide selection of books on all subjects. Clearly, opening the café would attract more customers. Space could be made for the café by discontinuing the children's book section, which will probably become less popular given that the most recent national census indicated a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten. Opening a café will allow Monarch to attract more customers and better compete with Regal Books, which recently opened its own café."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
In this argument, the author recommends that Monarch Books should open a cafe by discontinuing the children's book section to attract more customers and better compete with Regal Books, which recently opened its own café. To support the recommendation the author points that children's books will probably become less popular given that the most recent national census indicated a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten. However, I find this recommendation suspicious on several grounds.
One, the author overlooks such a question: does the data of the recent nation census accords with the data in this place? Would the sale of children's book has a decline either? It is quite likely that the population under age ten here would have a significant increase, contrary to the national census. What's more, even if there would be a decrease in the percentage of the population under ten here, the author provides no evidence of the sale of children's books. Perhaps parents would pay an increasing more attention to children's education, so they would buy more books for their children. Thus, there would be an increase in the sale of children's books despite of a decline of population of children. Therefore, without detailed and accurate prediction of children's population and sales of children's books in this place, the conclusion is unpersuasive.
Two, even if both the population under age ten and sales of children's book would increase, running a cafe needs large amounts of investment, if the manager would have a profit？If the manager has enough experience to run the cafe successfully? It is entirely possible that most customers here do not like to have coffee, then the revenue is less than costs. And running a cafe need a great deal of experience and novel ideas, the manager might be incompetent, and this scenario is quite possible. Therefore, without ruling these possibilities, the author cannot conceive me that the café will attract more customers and run success.
And finally, even if the cafe would run success, if Monarch Books is comparable with Regal Books? And if the cafe in Regal Books would attract more customers and run success? The author lacks sufficient information about the state of operation of Regal Books . It is very likely that the cafe in Regal Books is struggling to survive. Even if it is operating very well, perhaps the situations between two book shops, such as the purchasing power of consumers, have a big difference. So without accounting for the details of two book shops, the author cannot reasonably prove the proposed method will help Monarch Books
Summed up, the recommendation is not on sound reasoning and therefore unconvincing as it stand. To bolster it the author must provide clear and persuasive evidence that the population under age ten and the sales of children's book would increase. That the café will attract more customers and run success, in addition must prove that Monarch Books and Regal Books are comparable. |
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发表于 2012-1-31 17:50:23
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