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25) The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, the proposed new jazz club in Monroe, the C-Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer; several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe; and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight at 7 P.M. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment.
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
In this argument, that arguer assumes that a jazz music club in Monroe would be tremendous profitable. To bolster the assumption, the arguer points out several evidences. Firstly, since the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away, a new jazz club in Monroe would have the local market all to itself. Secondly, over 100,000 people attending Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer, many famous jazz musicians living in Monroe and that 'Jazz Nightly' is the highest-rated radio program there prove that jazz is very popular in Monroe.Finally, a nationwide study implies that the typical jazz fan spends nearly $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment.It seems that these evidences are many enough to substantiate the assumption at first glance, however, whether these evidences can really support the assumption is suspicious. The reasons are stated as follows.
In the first place, the arguer points out that the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away from Monroe, so that a new jazz club in Monroe would have the local market all to itself. However, it is possible that despite the long distance, that jazz club has its unique characteristics that attracts people still choosing it after a new jazz club developed in Monroe. Even if the nearest jazz club doesn't have any unique characteristics, maybe it has various jazz entertainment, and the fees are averagely lower than universal jazz clubs, and people in Monroe have much time more than money, thus the new jazz club in Monroe wouldn't necessarily have the local market all to itself.
In the second place, along with the fact that many people attend Monroe's annul jazz festival last summer; numerous famous jazz musicians live there, and that the highest radio program is 'Jazz Nightly', the arguer assumes that jazz is especially popular in Monroe. However, each of these evidences is doubtful to support the assumption. First, 100,000 people attending Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer doesn't mean all these people are specially attending it. Since it is possible that most of these people are tourists, and they came to Monroe mainly for its long history culture, comfortable weather, and so on. Even if these people specially attending it, maybe it is an aberration. Maybe the host of jazz festival in Monroe last summer made a large appealing advertisement and offer awards for attendants so that lead to the result of so many people's attending. Second, so many famous jazz musicians living in Monroe doesn't necessarily mean that jazz in Monroe is popular.It is possible that these musicians choose to live in Monroe purely for its superior living environment rather than a positive condition relating to jazz. In addition, these famous jazz musicians don't necessarily attract people to Monroe thus jazz in Monroe wouldn't necessarily be popular.Since maybe people used to like these musicians, and now they have no interested in them. Even if people still like them, they don't need to come to Monroe to join a jazz club, since they can enjoy jazz through the TV, the CD, the computer...Thus the fact that many famous jazz musicians living in Monroe neither can prove that jazz is popular in Monroe, nor can predicate that the jazz would popular there. Finally, that the radio program 'jazz Nightly' is the highest-rated cannot prove the jazz popularity, neither. Since it is possible that people like the host of the program rather than jazz itself. Maybe other radio programs are much worse than 'Jazz Nightly', thus people have to choose the least bad one. All in all, all these evidences cannot substantiate tat that jazz is popular in Monroe.
Last, by citing a nation study that the typical jazz spends nearly $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment, the arguer wants to prove that a new jazz club in Monroe would be profitable. However, the typical jazz fan in Monroe doesn't necessarily spend so much on the jazz entertainment, since it is possible that the typical jazz fans there are commonly not affluent, thus they would not spend so much on the jazz entertainment even if they love jazz crazily. And even if the typical jazz fan in Monroe would spend $1,000 or so per year on jazz entertainment, it doesn't mean that other people would do so as the typical jazz fan, and if these typical jazz fans are only a sam ll part of people in Monroe, the assumption that a new jazz club in Monroe would be tremendous profitable is not convincing.
To sum up, the arguer cannot ruling out the contest rival's other advantages of jazz clubs despite the distance; and many people's attending annul jazz festival in Monroe, numerous famous jazz musicians living in Monroe, and that 'Jazz Nightly' is the highest-rated radio program cannot prove that jazz is popular in Monroe; and the nation study relating to the expenditure of the typical jazz fan on entertainment cannot prove that a new jazz club could be profitable. All these lead this argument to a unpersuasive one.
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发表于 2012-1-11 16:13:50
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