第一篇习作，望兄弟姐妹们大力拍砖～～～

个人感觉用词较为简单，句子变化不够丰富，词汇变化较缺乏。

The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm.

“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increase with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”

In this argument, the author makes the recommendation that the investment and financial consulting firm should consider transferring its investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee. To bolster his argument, the author cites the result of an study, which suggests that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increase with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. In addition, he also claims that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period, given the the number of older adults increasing over the 20 years. The author’s recommendation seems somewhat reasonable at first glance, but a careful scrutiny will make it groundless for a couple of reason.

To begin with, the author commit a fallacy of “all things are equal” by assuming that the trends that have lasted over the past 40 years will automatically remains stable for the next 20 years. It is well known that the consumption preferences are sometimes established by the consumer education, which is made by all kinds of advertisement. What is most possible is that over the past 40 years, the Cola industry consider the market unprofitable because of the culture of the consumer in this market. In the next 20 years, this market appears to change with the economic globalization. The supplier of cola perhaps will invest a significant number of advertisement fee to educate the potential consumer, whose age vary from even less than 10 to above 60. The consulting firm, if changes its investment at present, would loss an opportunity to make a big fortune.

Next, even if the trends of consumption proves stable for the following 20 years, the author also erroneously assumes that the investment and financial consulting firm would make profit by transferring its investment from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee, because he make a oversimplification that the company in the increasing industry’s performance is better than the company in the decreasing industry, thus leading to less profit or lager risk. It is possible that the Cola Loca is a company which operates more than 100 years and is managed by a group of experienced and creative business experts, while the Early Bird Coffee is a local company, whose history appears to be less than half year. If it is the case, the investment transferring of the investment and financial consulting firm would faces a big risk.

Finally, the study lent by the investment and financial consulting firm is vogue. No sufficient evidence could prove its authority and persuasion.

In conclusion, the recommendation made by the author is unfounded. To make it more persuasive, the author should investigate in the two different industries to gain a picture about their respective business plan. Moreover, the author should prepare conference with the two companies’ business leaders to know well of them,  thus effective assessing the different leader’s level of management. 

不要用数字

用英文 比如sixty

词汇建议使用www.m-w.com里面的同义词来扩充一下