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9. The following appeared in the opinion column of a financial magazine. “On average, middle-aged consumers devote 39 percent of their retail expenditure to department store products and services, while for younger consumers the average is only 25 percent. Since the number of middle-aged people will increase dramatically within the next decade, department stores can expect retail sales to increase significantly during that period. Furthermore, to take advantage of the trend, these stores should begin to replace some of those products intended to attract the younger consumer with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumer.”
The author concludes that department stores should begin to replace some of those products intended to attract the young consumers with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumers. The author reasoning that the middle-aged consumers devote higher percentage of retail expenditure to department stores than the young consumers do. The author further reasoning that the number of middle-aged consumers will increase dramatically within the next decade. The reasoning in this argument is problematic in several respects.
First of all, the author mistakenly assumes that higher percent of total expense on retail will definitely cause higher expense on retail. This is not the necessary case. Because we don’t know whether the total expense is the same, we can not justify the middle-aged consumers spend more on retail. If the young consumers have a much bigger expenses, but a bit lower percentage of expense on retail. Can we still be sure the middle-aged consumers will spend more money in the department store? For instance, once the young consumers spend average 10% of their expenses on department store, compared to 12% of the middle-aged consumers. However, the total expenses for youth are $500, compared to $250 for the middle-aged consumers. We can not judge the expenses only through percentage.
Second, the author mistakenly assumes that middle-aged consumers will remain the same in different periods. In the argument, the author asserts that the middle-aged consumers currently spend higher percentage of their expenses on the retail, and he also tells that there will be a dramatic increase in the number of middle-aged consumers. But how can he conclude that these middle-aged consumers will not change their behavior on the purchase? Will they have the same behavior as the current peer? Therefore, the author needs to provide more information about the assumption.
In conclusion, the author’s argument is unacceptable. To strengthen the argument, the author should provide more evidences to testify the conclusion, such as whether the perspective middle-aged consumers will be similar to the current ones.
距离考试只有4天了,可是只写了这么一篇.本来想写3点理由的,可是来不及了,只写了2点.字数也远远没到400.哎,大家就猛批一下吧.大概能有几分? Thanks in advence!
[此贴子已经被作者于2007-11-17 15:23:04编辑过] |