离杀鸡还有两天，首次尝试argument，请指导！

花了两个小时写出下面的argument analysis，请大家拍砖！！谢谢！！

                

1. The following appeared as part of an
annual report sent to stockholders by Olympic Foods, a processor of frozen
foods.

“Over time, the costs of processing go down because as
organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient. In
color film processing, for example, the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from
50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 cents for one-day service in 1984.
The same principle applies to the processing of food. And since Olympic Foods
will soon celebrate its twenty-fifth birthday, we can expect that our long
experience will enable us to minimize costs and thus maximize profits.”

下面摘自一家冷冻食品处理商（processor）奥林匹克食品提交给股东的年报：随着时间流逝，由于机构了解了做好事情的方法进而提高了效率，处理的成本会降低。比如在彩色胶卷处理方面，3/5英寸照片的成本从1970年的5天50cent降至1984年的1天20cent。同样的规律适用于食品处理方面。由于奥林匹克食品即将庆祝它的25岁生日，我们可以指望我们长期的经验会使我们达到最小的成本和最大的利润。

 

        The
author argues that Olympic Foods will be able to minimize costs and thus
maximize profits in the future. To support this conclusion, the author cites the
fact drawn from the color-film processing industry that indicates a decreasing
in the costs of film processing over a 24-year period. The author also point
out the general principle that as organizations learn how to do things better,
they become more efficient. This principle, along with the fact that Olympic
Foods has had 25 years of experience in the food processing business leads to
the author’s promising conclusion. This argument needs to be justified because
it suffers from two major logical flaws.

In
the first place, the author commits a fallacy of false analogy in assuming that
Olympic Foods will achieve the same result as the color-film processing
organizations, if Olympic Foods applied the same principle. The reasoning is
questionable, because the differences between the two industries clearly
outweigh the similarities. For example, food safety control, storage/inventory management,
and timely delivery all affect the food industry. However, the film-processing business
has no need to worry about such effects. Although the same principle is
applied, if such problems affecting the Food Industry are ignored, Olympic
Foods would not be able to lower its food-processing costs in the future.

In
the second place, the author’s expectation of minimal costs and maximum profits
relies on the gratuitous assumption that Olympic Foods’ “long time” experience
has taught it to do things better. It is quite possible that Olympic Foods has
learned nothing from its 25 years in the food-processing business. Without more
concrete information about how the company improved and learned to do things
better during the 25 years, the author’s assumption that Olympic Foods will
become more efficient due to its “long time” experience is invalid. Lacking
this assumption, the prediction of the increased efficiency is entirely groundless.

In
sum, this argument is not reasonable and persuasive as it stands. Citing the fact
of the film-processing business to support his conclusion, the author didn’t
consider the huge difference between the two industries, thus making the
analogy much less valid. To solidify the conclusion, the author would have to
provide evidence that the company has learned to do things better as a result
of its 25 years of experience. In addition, supporting examples drawn from businesses
more similar to the food-processing industry would further strengthen the author’s
view.

晚上改

In
the first place, the author commits a fallacy of false analogy in assuming that
Olympic Foods will achieve the same result as the color-film processing
organizations, if Olympic Foods applied the same principle. The reasoning is
questionable, because the differences between the two industries clearly
outweigh the similarities. For example, food safety control, storage/inventory management,
and timely delivery all affect the food industry. However, the film-processing business
has no need to worry about such effects. Although the same principle is
applied, if such problems affecting the Food Industry are ignored, Olympic
Foods would not be able to lower its food-processing costs in the future.  {Good}

In
the second place, the author’s expectation of minimal costs and maximum profits
relies on the gratuitous assumption that Olympic Foods’ “long time” experience
has taught it to do things better. It is quite possible that Olympic Foods has
learned nothing from its 25 years in the food-processing business.  {this is part is bad because you try to attack the premise} Without more
concrete information about how the company improved and learned to do things
better during the 25 years, the author’s assumption that Olympic Foods will
become more efficient due to its “long time” experience is invalid. Lacking
this assumption, the prediction of the increased efficiency is entirely groundless. {So try the fallacy of "all things are equal."}  For example, raw materials cost could increase; wages increase; worker who started to work at the factory at 25-years ago may enter retirement  and become old , then pension and health care cost increase; ...

{The author commits a fallacy of causal oversimplification}.  It is true that ...  However, as the quality and functions of many products are improved over years, products become more sophisticated and harder to be made.  For example, compared to old model, curent cars have more safety and entertainment features such as anti-lock brake, air-bag, satellite radio, etc.  Therefore,

In
sum, this argument is not reasonable and persuasive as it stands. Citing the fact
of the film-processing business to support his conclusion, the author didn’t
consider the huge difference between the two industries, thus making the
analogy much less valid. To solidify the conclusion, the author would have to
provide evidence that the company has learned to do things better as a result
of its 25 years of experience. In addition, supporting examples drawn from businesses
more similar to the food-processing industry would further strengthen the author’s
view.