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沙发
楼主 |
发表于 2014-10-30 22:26:14
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Part II: Speed
New home sales: better luck next year By Shawna Ohm | October 24, 2014
[Time 2]
New data out this morning showed new home sales rose 0.2% to 467,000 in September. That may seem like a small number, but it’s the highest rate since July 2008. The government also revised down August’s blockbuster number from 504,000 to 466,0000.
Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist at McGladrey is not impressed by the number. “It’s the same old, same old,” he said. “What we have is... a problem in the housing market that has to do with tight credit conditions. Even though the provision of private financial credit is up, it’s not translating to effective increase in loanable funds to people who are interested in a home.”
Still, that doesn’t mean he agrees with the administration’s new push to help people buy homes. Recently, CEO of Fannie Mae Timothy Mayopoulos said the housing giant would go back to its previous policy of buying home loans where buyers put as little as 3% down.
“I really think that they oughta re-think this 3% down idea,” said Brusuelas. He worries that this incentive will encourage people to buy homes beyond their reach and put them at risk for going under water on their homes – a big problem in the housing crisis. “Let’s hope this is just an electoral ploy… because I think this is a good example of bad policy.”
But there are more issues with the housing economy than just credit. There’s also a big tie in with jobs.
[238 words]
[Time 3]
“The employment-to-population ratio of those aged 25 to 34 is lower than where it has been compared prior to the recession,” reminds Brusuelas. “Until those individuals are hired in mass numbers, and see increasing wages, you’re not going to get the demand for residential investment, which is very important to GDP.”
The unemployment rate is now below 6%, but wage growth during the recovery has been essentially stagnant.
“Typically in about 12 to 18 months you’re going to see wages rise,” but the increase will not be the 4% we’re used to – more like 2-2.5%.
The other mistake many of us try to make when understanding housing trends, said Brusuelas, is looking at housing as a national story when much of what drives the housing market up or down depends on local factors.
“A lot of times, economists like myself make the mistake of looking at housing as a macro indicator and it’s really not. You have to go city by city, state by state, neighborhood by neighborhood.”
As for what to expect next from housing – which is seen as central to the health of the economy by everyone from economists to Warren Buffett – it should get better next year.
“Unless we have a really terrible winter we’ll see a big pop in starts, that’ll help on supply, that’ll bring pricing down, and those numbers are going to look much better in 2015,” said Brusuelas. But still, “we got a long way to go."
“When we get into the next business cycle I would expect that some of the demographic realties will take over. The 84 million Millennials?
*They’re going to enter the system. There will be demand for homes,” he said. Just don’t expect that to happen in this cycle.
As they say in sports – better luck next year.
[300 words]
Source: Yahoo Finance
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/new-home-sales-up--2--in-september-153838478.html
China Fake Invoice Evidence Mounts as HK Figures Diverge
By Bloomberg News | October 27, 2014
[Time 4]
The gap between China's reported exports to Hong Kong and the territory's imports from the mainland widened in September to the most this year, suggesting fake export-invoicing is again skewing China's trade data.
China recorded $1.56 of exports to Hong Kong last month for every $1 in imports Hong Kong registered, leading to a $13.5 billion difference, according to government data compiled by Bloomberg. Hong Kong's imports from China climbed 5.5 percent from a year earlier to $24.1 billion, figures showed yesterday; China's exports to Hong Kong surged 34 percent to $37.6 billion, according to mainland data on Oct. 13.
While China's government has strict rules on importing capital, those seeking to exploit yuan appreciation can evade the limit by disguising money inflows as payment for goods exported to foreign countries or territories, especially Hong Kong. The latest trade mismatch coincided with renewed appreciation of China's currency, leading analysts at banks and brokerages including Everbright Securities Co. and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. to question the export surge.
"This is definitely another important piece of evidence of over-invoicing exports to Hong Kong to facilitate money inflow into China," said Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. "So we shouldn't be too optimistic about recent export data from China."
[230 words]
[Time 5]
Doubts over the data raise broader concerns, as a surge in exports was believed to have underpinned economic growth in the third quarter. Shen said the economic outlook is "challenging" and more easing is "necessary."
Industrial Profits
Data today added to evidence of moderating economic growth. Industrial profits rose 0.4 percent in September from a year earlier, following a 0.6 percent decline in August -- the weakest two months since mid-2012.
Gross domestic product rose 7.3 percent in the July-September period from a year earlier, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2009. Export demand has been a bright spot in an economy weighted by a property slump and a decline in investment growth.
Although a rapid increase in luxury goods shipments suggests some of the exports to Hong Kong should be attributed to capital inflows, exports of processed goods including the iPhone drove the September surge, said Hua Changchun, a China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong.
"The fake invoicing problem is not as severe as last year," Hua said.
Yuan Bets
After almost uninterrupted annual gains since 2005 that saw the yuan rise about 33 percent versus the dollar, speculators have come to see China's currency as a one-way trade. That prompts hot money to seek out China on currency appreciation bets. Worries about distortions had abated this year after a government crack down and as the yuan dropped.
[259 words]
[Time 6]
Companies have "faked, forged and illegally re-used" documents for exports and imports, Wu Ruilin, a deputy head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange's inspection department, said at a briefing in Beijing last month. The country has uncovered almost $10 billion in fraudulent trades nationwide since April last year.
China's government noticed the rapid increase in trade of some merchandise with Hong Kong in September, Shen Danyang, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, said at a briefing on Oct. 16. The spokesman said the ministry will step up scrutiny and analysis.
The State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China didn't immediately respond to a fax sent yesterday asking about the reliability of the data.
The China-Hong Kong export gap highlights a "policy risk" if authorities respond with disciplinary action and foreign exchange intervention, analysts at ANZ Bank led by Raymond Yeung wrote in a note yesterday.
"We believe that the People's Bank of China is paying close attention to possible resurrection of cross border financial arbitrage and non-genuine trade activities," the analysts wrote. "We should pay close attention to the possible consequences."
[182 words]
Source: Yahoo Finance
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-fake-invoice-evidence-mounts-160100641.html |
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