【Native Speaker每日综合训练—43系列】【43-19】经管

吐吐yeah

内容：小蘑菇开始打怪 编辑：吐吐yeah

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Part I: Speaker

On Superstorm Sandy Anniversary, Red Cross Under Scrutiny

Source: NPR
http://www.npr.org/2014/10/29/359365276/on-superstorm-sandy-anniversary-red-cross-under-scrutiny

[Rephrase 1, 8:18]

吐吐yeah

Part II: Speed

New home sales: better luck next year

By Shawna Ohm | October 24, 2014

[Time 2]
New data out this morning showed new home sales rose 0.2% to 467,000 in September. That may seem like a small number, but it’s the highest rate since July 2008. The government also revised down August’s blockbuster number from 504,000 to 466,0000.

Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist at McGladrey is not impressed by the number. “It’s the same old, same old,” he said. “What we have is... a problem in the housing market that has to do with tight credit conditions. Even though the provision of private financial credit is up, it’s not translating to effective increase in loanable funds to people who are interested in a home.”

Still, that doesn’t mean he agrees with the administration’s new push to help people buy homes. Recently, CEO of Fannie Mae Timothy Mayopoulos said the housing giant would go back to its previous policy of buying home loans where buyers put as little as 3% down.

“I really think that they oughta re-think this 3% down idea,” said Brusuelas. He worries that this incentive will encourage people to buy homes beyond their reach and put them at risk for going under water on their homes – a big problem in the housing crisis. “Let’s hope this is just an electoral ploy… because I think this is a good example of bad policy.”

But there are more issues with the housing economy than just credit. There’s also a big tie in with jobs.
[238 words]

[Time 3]
“The employment-to-population ratio of those aged 25 to 34 is lower than where it has been compared prior to the recession,” reminds Brusuelas. “Until those individuals are hired in mass numbers, and see increasing wages, you’re not going to get the demand for residential investment, which is very important to GDP.”

The unemployment rate is now below 6%, but wage growth during the recovery has been essentially stagnant.

“Typically in about 12 to 18 months you’re going to see wages rise,” but the increase will not be the 4% we’re used to – more like 2-2.5%.

The other mistake many of us try to make when understanding housing trends, said Brusuelas, is looking at housing as a national story when much of what drives the housing market up or down depends on local factors.

“A lot of times, economists like myself make the mistake of looking at housing as a macro indicator and it’s really not. You have to go city by city, state by state, neighborhood by neighborhood.”

As for what to expect next from housing – which is seen as central to the health of the economy by everyone from economists to Warren Buffett – it should get better next year.

“Unless we have a really terrible winter we’ll see a big pop in starts, that’ll help on supply, that’ll bring pricing down, and those numbers are going to look much better in 2015,” said Brusuelas. But still, “we got a long way to go."

“When we get into the next business cycle I would expect that some of the demographic realties will take over. The 84 million Millennials?
*They’re going to enter the system. There will be demand for homes,” he said. Just don’t expect that to happen in this cycle.

As they say in sports – better luck next year.
[300 words]

Source: Yahoo Finance
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/new-home-sales-up--2--in-september-153838478.html

China Fake Invoice Evidence Mounts as HK Figures Diverge
By Bloomberg News | October 27, 2014

[Time 4]
The gap between China's reported exports to Hong Kong and the territory's imports from the mainland widened in September to the most this year, suggesting fake export-invoicing is again skewing China's trade data.

China recorded $1.56 of exports to Hong Kong last month for every $1 in imports Hong Kong registered, leading to a $13.5 billion difference, according to government data compiled by Bloomberg. Hong Kong's imports from China climbed 5.5 percent from a year earlier to $24.1 billion, figures showed yesterday; China's exports to Hong Kong surged 34 percent to $37.6 billion, according to mainland data on Oct. 13.

While China's government has strict rules on importing capital, those seeking to exploit yuan appreciation can evade the limit by disguising money inflows as payment for goods exported to foreign countries or territories, especially Hong Kong. The latest trade mismatch coincided with renewed appreciation of China's currency, leading analysts at banks and brokerages including Everbright Securities Co. and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. to question the export surge.

"This is definitely another important piece of evidence of over-invoicing exports to Hong Kong to facilitate money inflow into China," said Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. "So we shouldn't be too optimistic about recent export data from China."
[230 words]

[Time 5]
Doubts over the data raise broader concerns, as a surge in exports was believed to have underpinned economic growth in the third quarter. Shen said the economic outlook is "challenging" and more easing is "necessary."

Industrial Profits
Data today added to evidence of moderating economic growth. Industrial profits rose 0.4 percent in September from a year earlier, following a 0.6 percent decline in August -- the weakest two months since mid-2012.

Gross domestic product rose 7.3 percent in the July-September period from a year earlier, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2009. Export demand has been a bright spot in an economy weighted by a property slump and a decline in investment growth.

Although a rapid increase in luxury goods shipments suggests some of the exports to Hong Kong should be attributed to capital inflows, exports of processed goods including the iPhone drove the September surge, said Hua Changchun, a China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong.

"The fake invoicing problem is not as severe as last year," Hua said.

Yuan Bets
After almost uninterrupted annual gains since 2005 that saw the yuan rise about 33 percent versus the dollar, speculators have come to see China's currency as a one-way trade. That prompts hot money to seek out China on currency appreciation bets. Worries about distortions had abated this year after a government crack down and as the yuan dropped.
[259 words]

[Time 6]
Companies have "faked, forged and illegally re-used" documents for exports and imports, Wu Ruilin, a deputy head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange's inspection department, said at a briefing in Beijing last month. The country has uncovered almost $10 billion in fraudulent trades nationwide since April last year.

China's government noticed the rapid increase in trade of some merchandise with Hong Kong in September, Shen Danyang, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, said at a briefing on Oct. 16. The spokesman said the ministry will step up scrutiny and analysis.

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China didn't immediately respond to a fax sent yesterday asking about the reliability of the data.

The China-Hong Kong export gap highlights a "policy risk" if authorities respond with disciplinary action and foreign exchange intervention, analysts at ANZ Bank led by Raymond Yeung wrote in a note yesterday.

"We believe that the People's Bank of China is paying close attention to possible resurrection of cross border financial arbitrage and non-genuine trade activities," the analysts wrote. "We should pay close attention to the possible consequences."
[182 words]

Source: Yahoo Finance
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-fake-invoice-evidence-mounts-160100641.html

吐吐yeah

Part III: Obstacle

Back to reality
Oct 25th 2014 | LONDON AND PARIS | From the print edition

[Paraphrase 7]
EARLIER this year it all looked so rosy. In April, just two years after Greece imposed the biggest sovereign-debt restructuring in history on its private creditors, it raised €3 billion ($4.2 billion at the time) in five-year bonds at a yield of less than 5%. In July its ten-year bonds were yielding less than 6% and their Spanish and Italian equivalents less than 3%, not far off Germany’s. The troubled economies of Europe’s “periphery” were beginning to turn around, it seemed, and the European Central Bank (ECB) would do whatever it took to keep the euro zone together.

That all went out the window in the global market sell-off of October 15th-16th. Yields on Greek government debt briefly exceeded 9%; the spread between yields on German government bonds and those of debt-addled euro-zone countries widened and lower-rated corporate-bond yields rose sharply too. Part of the rise might have been due to bond markets’ declining liquidity (see article). At any rate, some ground has since been regained, with corporate bonds especially buoyed by the rumour (later denied) that the ECB was about to buy corporate debt as part of an asset-purchase scheme.

But worries that slow growth in the euro zone will be a serious drag on the world economy are increasing. Deflation, which makes debts harder to bear, has taken hold in the periphery, and threatens to afflict the euro zone as a whole. Faith that the ECB will be able to do much about either problem is declining. Against that background some euro-zone debt—both public and private—looks unsustainable.

Between 2007 and 2013 the ratio of government debt to GDP in the euro area rose from 66% to 93%. The spike was more dramatic in the periphery (see chart): in Greece the ratio increased to 175% and in Portugal it virtually doubled to 129%. High government debt itself does not necessarily crimp economic growth. But as bond yields rise, servicing that debt becomes difficult. Italy—with the third-largest stock of government debt in the world, much of it refinanced each year—is a particular concern. According to estimates from Moody’s, a rating agency, it will have to find around €470billion of funding next year, worth nearly one-third of its GDP. The financing needs of other peripheral governments are not as drastic, but they are still high.

The overhang of private-sector debt is also cause for concern. Overindebted firms struggle to grow and invest, while tying up scarce bank capital, which impedes lending to worthier borrowers. The picture is not uniformly grim. Despite Italy’s staggering government debt, its households owe less than Germany’s and its non-financial companies not much more. Spain’s private sector has deleveraged substantially over the past few years, as big recapitalisations have left its banks better able to withstand write-downs of bad loans.

But peripheral countries typically have a long tail of heavily indebted firms. In Portugal around a quarter of listed firms have debts of more than five times their earnings before interest, tax, amortisation and depreciation—the worst ratio in the periphery, points out Alberto Gallo of RBS, a bank. And the proportion of loans in default is still rising in Portugal, Italy and Greece, he says.

On October 26th the results of the ECB’s review of the books of big euro-zone banks will be released. They are expected to show few serious problems. Banks have been raising capital to be sure not to be found wanting. After it they may write down more bad loans rather than rolling them over. Another change is to corporate insolvency regimes, which typically make it harder to call in debts or seize collateral in the euro area than in America. All the peripheral countries have either reformed their laws or promised to do so, and the European Commission is pushing a common European standard.

Government debt looks more intractable, especially in light of the lacklustre growth and slide towards deflation that now seem entrenched. A recent analysis by Fitch, a rating agency, suggests that it will be very hard for any highly indebted euro-zone government to reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio by 20 percentage points over the next eight years, still less return it to its pre-crisis level. Governments need to run primary (ie, before interest payments) surpluses in order to pay off existing debt. The IMF reckons that Italy will reach and maintain a primary surplus of nearly 5% of GDP by 2018, but is less sanguine about other euro-zone debtors. Tax rises and spending cuts are hard to implement. A study of 54 emerging and advanced economies, by Ugo Panizza of the Graduate Institute, Geneva and Barry Eichengreen of the University of California, Berkeley shows that large and sustained primary surpluses are extremely rare. People in the southern periphery are especially fed up with austerity, which has had a massive cost in terms of unemployment and living standards. More bad news, and the situation could look critical once again.
[823 words]

Source: The Economist
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21627647-debt-some-euro-zone-economies-looks-unsustainable-back-reality

conglomerator

All of the red crosses are the same all over the world...

Time 2: 1:14

New data shows new home sales grew to the highest rate since July 2008. Economist think that tight credit control influence the rise. But that doesn’t mean he agrees the administration’s new push. He still thinks financial incentives may encourage people buy homes they can not reach. And there are more issues with the housing economy than just credit. There is also a big tie with jobs.

Time 3: 2:02

The employment rate of people from 25 to 34 is lower than that prior to the recession. Though the unemployment rate is below 6%, the wage increase is slow. Until mass number of people from 25 to 34 get hired, you can see house sales increasing. We generally make a mistake about taking home sales as a national topic, actually what we should look at it regionally. The number of home sales probably will be better next year, but we still get a long way to go. In the next cycle, when the new generation comes into the market, it will all get better. But it just won’t happen next year.

Time 4: 1:23

The differences between China to HK’s export data and HK to China’s import data get to the largest point in September. So the increased export data doesn’t indicate more goods actually exported to HK. There is a good chance that more money flow into China by faking export money. The money flow into China because the owner favors Chinese currency.

Time 5: 1:31

The other indicators proves the doubt on rising export data, and show that the economy growth is only moderate and the outlook is challenging. But someone claims that the fake invoicing problem is not as serious as last year, and iPhone shipped to HK in September caused the export data rise. Since 2005, speculators have seen China’s currency as going one-way up. That prompts hot money seek out China on currency appreciation bets. Worries about distortion abated this year after a government crack down and as the yuan dropped.

Time 6: 0:57

The administration noticed the potential fake invoicing problem and is paying attention to it, though no move has been made yet.

Obstacle: 4:27

I won’t be able to understand what the passage is saying, even if it is in Chinese. Do it over tomorrow, without time counting...

conglomerator

传说中的沙发。。。和板凳。。。。哈哈哈！

cyndichiang

Speaker
During the stormsand Sandy,the emergency services are far from satisfaction.
The record of charities are challenged by their employees and ture records
Charties haven't provided mass care or enough shelters
Some volunteers are willing to help victims but most of things they aren't capable to handle them.

Obstacle:  6'02''
The troubled economies of  European countries such as Greece are turning back.
ECB tries to buy corporate debts to relieve the high-debt or even deflation.
Peripheral countries not only has a high debt-GDP rate,but also their private section is heavily indebted.
It is not possible to raisde taxes or cut spending to deal with the situation in EU.

MAGGIEHE1993

Obstacle: It seemed that the troubled economies of Europe's "periphery" were beginning to turn around.
          The yields of bond of Greek and other periphery countries rose sharply.
          But worries that slow growth in the euro zone will be a serious drag on the world economy are increasing.
          The ratio of government debt to GDP in the euro zone is especially high.
          The overhang of private-sector debt is also cause of concern.
          But peripheral countries typically have a long tail of heavily indebted firms.
          A rating agency suggests that it will be very hard for any highly indebted euro-zone government to reduce its
          debt-to-GDP ratio by 20 percentage points over the next eight years.

成成儿

【time 1】17'35''73
when superstorm sandy happened, red cross was chosen as the best place to deliver to demands to disaster areas.
but its employees and records show that what the organization did is not enough.
the subjects of the survey contain victims, the representatives of the red cross and its employees.
the representatives of the red cross say that they have try their best to deliver foods and lifesaving materials.
one representative says there are two documents.
however, the victims say that the supply is less and few volunteers go to help them.
also the employees in the red cross show that they want to help victims but they do not have freedom to do what they originally want to.
and they indicate that the organization can do more.

【time 2】2'11''70'''
even though the home sales increase, Brusuelas still worries about the house market. first, the problem of credit situation is not good.
second, the 3% down idea is not as good as expected. it will attract those who cannot afford the debt to buy the house, resulting in housing risk.

【time 3】3'13''95'''
Brusuelas says that is the ratio of employment to population that determine the housing market.
recently, even though the employment rate increase, the average wage does not change. therefore, it is mistaking to say that an increasing of employment can help the housing mareket.
Brusuelas also points out a misunderstanding that it is local factor not macro that determine the housing market. that is different states have different situation
also, the population can give some hope, but it is not now.

【time 4】2'21''30'''
the data from import and export show that there is a surging invoice of China's export records.
because of the regulation of import, invoice of export can help to bring into invest capital.
therefore, specialist advices that people cannot be too optimistic to china's export record.

【time 5】2'09''14'''
the surging of invoice has other impact. the surging export caused by the invoice would show that the growth of economy increases. However, it is not the truth.

【time 6】1'22''35'''
the invoice comes from several ways.
the chinese government announce that they have exported machine and military instruments to Hong Kong. However they do not respond to question about the reliability of these data.
the analysts say they will pay attention to the outcome of invoice.

【time 7】7'11''79'''
the financial difficult covers all over the european, including european government, private sectors, and banks.
analysts predict that the condition cannot improve in 8 years.
european country have made effort to address the financial problems, such as austerity, employment and so on.

samantha12

Reading 2 01:24.57
A good data has been gotten. However the concerns about what the data reflects have been raised by a authority. He has his opinion explained and at the same time he has suggested the gov and market do something better.
Reading 2 01:56.76
Introducing another factor affecting the housing market and the economy. When we start to solve the housing problem, we often trapped by a common knowledge, which is definitely wrong. At last, we know that the revive will definitely come.
Reading 3 01:59.74
A data has been placed, however, there's a big difference between the data in mainland and the data in Hongkong. The reason for this gap occurred has been stated. Then a authority has stated his concern.
Reading 4 01:33.54
Based on the data in other industry, we can know that the reason for huge gap in data difference is not that severe. And another concern has been raised.
Reading 5 01:25.12
The administration's reaction towards this kind of question, along with some analysists envision on government's actions.
Obstacle 06:38.21
To begin with, the author briefly introduced the economic situation in Europe. The economy seemed rosy in the first two quarters in this year, then it has turned down until now. And this change has some bad effects not only on the countries themselves but also on other countries and regions.
Why did this change happen? The first concern focuses on the economic situation in this countries, the other concerns about the people.
Based on this bad situation, the organization determines to do something.
Even though there are measures have been taken, this severe economic situation cannot be turn around immediately. Due to their awful economy history, the future seems not so bright.

soun0218

T2: 1:37
T3: 1:53(300)
T4: 1:48(230)
T5: 1:52(259)
T6: 1:21(182)

O1: 6:03(823)
Talking about the euro-zones of Europe`s debt crisis.