8月底考G归来，作文3分，求狠拍

helenecho

这是考完以后回家回忆打出的，和考场上真实写出的相比，思路是大致一样的，但语句组织可能有所不同。跪求大神指点和拍砖

Issue 149
In any field—business, politics, education, government—those in power should be required to step down after five years.

Write a response in which you discuss your views on the policy and explain your reasoning for the position you take. In developing and supporting your position, you should consider the possible consequences of implementing the policy and explain how these consequences shape your position.
  
Should the ones in power step down after five years? I believe that it depends on the field they are in. In the politic field, I agree with this policy. While in other fields, such as education, such policy can lead to several disadvantages, which I will discuss below.

In the political filed, it is necessary for the people in power to step down after a period of time since it is an effective way of preventing corruption. It is well known that political power is addictive, to illustrate, one just needs to look at the long list of names of the officers in the Chinese government who commit corruption, and most of them act morally different before and after their long-term role as the men with political power. By changing the leaders every five years, the special interest group can be prevented to be built up, and the leaders have less opportunity to cultivate the force to serve their own interests.

However, when it comes to the field of academic, this policy could turn out to be a waste of resource. Academic pursue is a long-term process, and changing the leaders in the middle of certain academic activity can disrupt the process. For example, some longitudinal research may last ten years. If the leader of the research have to be changed, there are several possibilities. The former leader may compact the whole research process in order to get the result sooner when he/she is still in this program; the new leaders can be not familiar with, or not interested in the original research aims, or they can simply leave the research program unfinished. Either way it is a waste of academic resource.

Moreover, the job security in certain field can create a free and relaxing environment for people to fully develop their potential without being influenced by exterior power. A case in point is tenure professor and grand justice. The establishment of the tenure professor system came from a Stanford professor who got fired by the school board for his argument that railway should be operated by government, rather than enterprise. Unfortunately, the university of Stanford relied heavily on the profit of operating the railway at that time. We can see how some field is vulnerable to the political or economic force (and the justice system is as susceptible to the political demand). By not changing the position of some people with power, those people can be protected from the exterior impact and stand up for their convictions.

In conclusion, I partially agree with this policy in that political power needs to be restraint, and changing people in power can be effective of achieving this aim. However, for academic field, changing leaders could be a waste of resources because some research could last longer than five years. Moreover, tenure position is important in protecting independent view from professors and justice.

Argument 147
"Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have
traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region
experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters
at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for
several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region
during the past year. Because of these developments, we predict an increased
demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries,
one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

While the notion that colder weather may cause the increasing demand of heating fuel is reasonable, the author’s conclusion that their company should invest in Consolidated Industries rests on a considerable amount of assumptions. If these assumptions are proven to be untrue, the argument could be seriously weakened.

The first assumption the author made is that the below-average temperature will increase the use of heating fuel.  The author assumes that cold weather are linked to the consumption of heating fuel, and believes that according to the 90 days below-average temperature, as well as the result of Waymarsh University’s weather forecast, there is a growing market demand of heating fuel. Whereas it is not necessarily the case. Perhaps the temperature last year had only a slight and insignificant decrease than in the past, and the needs of the market of heating power has not been influenced. Perhaps due to the living habit and the warmth retention of the houses in northern part of USA, the use of heating fuel did not increase last year, and it will not increase in the future even if the weather will be continuously colder than before. Without further information indicating the correlation of the lower temperature and higher fuel consumption, the author cannot make a cogent case.

The author also presumes that new homes built in this region will contribute to a raised amount of heating oil. However, it is possible that the new homes does not consume more heating oil. For example, these newly built homes may use environmentally friendly heating like electricity or solar energy instead of heating oil. It is also possible that there are few people move into these new home and most of the homes stay empty. House or apartment building nowadays is commercial investment which is not necessarily according to the actual dwelling needs. Unless teh author provides us more details about the heating pattern as well as the rate of occupation of these new homes, the new homes built cannot be used as a support for his/her conclusion.

On the basis of the former two assumptions, the author believes there will be an increase in the use of heating oil and then makes his/her third assumption that investment in Consolidated Industry will be profitable.  Even if the author proved that there will be a growing demand in the heating oil, the profitability of this investment is open to doubt. It is possible that the cost of manufacturing and transporting heating oil outweigh the profit, and there is also a chance that the governmental tax charged on this business is so high that the possible profit will be devastatingly diluted. In that case, the investment will be a bad business. There is also a possibility that there are some competitors in this business with highly competitive price, satisfying service, as well as deep customer loyalty, therefore it will be hard to share the market with them and make profits. Without ruling out these possibilities, the author cannot convince me that their company should make this investment.

In conclusion, the author’s conclusion is based on a serries of assumption, and he/she needs to collect a lot of information to confirm these assumptions and then substantiate his/her argument.