关于R1和R2的一些比较（用数据说话）

llpbrace

由于lz两个月前才决定申请15fall的mba,Gmat之前又没有考过10月份一战所以R1是铁定赶不上了。今天闲着去网上找些关于R1和R2孰优孰劣的资料，网上普遍的观点是：招生办的人都声称R1和R2是基本一样的，但是大家包括一些consulting的机构都认为R1可能会稍好一些，理由是名额多，竞争少等等。。。

我在一个叫做gmatclub的国外论坛看到了一些数据，发现了发现了一些有趣的数据。废话不说，先上图。。。由于样本太多，所以lz只贴M7的数据，如对其他学校感兴趣请上gmatclub自行寻找。









我稍微说一下背景。gmatclub可能是美国的一个类似cd的网站，在这个论坛上有一个板块就是一些有名的business school都会有自己的子论坛，版主每年都会做一个活动就是calling in all applicants，然后搜集论坛会员的信息（被那些学校录取了，是round几 etc...)再制作成图表。这些数据是2014年fall入学的数据。样本数据大概占总申请数的1/10-1/6. 例如，hbs去年总共收到9000+的申请，从第一幅图我们可以看出，汇报信息的applicants有958人，大约十分之一左右。也就是说，这些学校全世界的所有申请者，大概有1/10-1/6的人会在这个网站上汇报录取信息。可以说，有一定的参考价值吧。

首先我们来看录取率，lz摘录数据如下：
hbs R1 11% R2 6% R2完败
wharton R1 16% R2 17% R2小胜
CBS ED 17% RD 19% RD小胜 （说实话这个挺意外的）
Kellogg R1 19% R2 21% R2小胜
Stanford R1 7% R2 6% R1小胜
Booth R1 22% R2 21% R1小胜
Sloan R1 14% R2 9% R2完败

可以发现除了hbs和sloan的R1明显占优之外，其他的M7从数据上R1和R2几乎无差别，甚至R2会稍微占优。而且最重要的是， 我们可以明显看到，从论坛汇报的信息来看，每个学校申请R1的人都是要多于R2的人，而不是网上到处流传的R2才是主力军。关于这点，lz也不明白是为什么，难道样本有问题？欢迎大家讨论。

所以，lz认为千万不要为了R1而申请R1,一定要当你觉得你的application package最好的时候再去申请（当然要在R2 deadline之前了）。大家如果有什么想法请畅所欲言

godson911

我记得看过一个数据是hbs R1的话就会发出900多个面试的邀请~

felix123

问楼主一个问题：如果你所有材料都在r1准备好了，没有再改进的空间了，你会因为以上数据而等到r2才提交吗？

guoziyang1983

好干货，我之前也研究过。
基本上r2没有优势，但是也不怎么吃亏，
不过我认为复杂背景的，还是申请r1最好，
通常r2开始，学校倾向于根红苗正的了。

diablo2man

this statistic doesn't make sense unless you could prove it has no bias. I think samples on gmatclub has serious self-selection bias since people actively participate in online forum are probably different than the mass.

As over represented minority with standard background (finance, tech, consulting, audit), I always believe we should apply earlier. Because there are only a few spots for us in each schools. we are affected by huge margin error.

For example, Wharton may only admit 1-2 Chinese with big 4 background, so even one people get in before you, you may lose your spot even if your background meets standard. It is just a demand and supply game.

I think people tend to over-exaggerate the importance of essay. Essay is just a way to present the fact, not thought. For most people with standard background, there is NO WAY you can write A+ essay and get you into another league. You really don't need to polish phrases and sentences for couple of weeks and postpone to later round. Just clearly present the fact well. If you are not comfortable with your English writing, find some essay consultants to edit once or twice and it is done.

The trend of b-school essay proves my point. Almost all school application become shorter and more simple, because school is not interested in your bs. In the end of day, people can make up opinion but not fact.

I believe many people (including me) tend to delay important decision. But as a future business/society leader, decision making under pressure is very important. That's also what business school like I guess. There is no excuse to submit in R2 if you have all tests done by now and have decided schools to apply.

(all my saying above applly to standard background people)

brfmzbjz

这个数据一定有bias
用GMAT学过的逻辑想想就知道
上Gmatclub的人群是不是有什么不一样的特征？
报offer的人是不是有什么不一样的特征？
这都significantly影响统计的结果
另外 从学校这边放出来的整个applicant pool的数据才是最可靠的
比如每年30%~35%的applicant 在round 1 申请
这一点是for sure的

但无论如何 卤煮用数据说话的思路和态度非常好

llpbrace

felix123 发表于 2014-9-11 15:36
问楼主一个问题：如果你所有材料都在r1准备好了，没有再改进的空间了，你会因为以上数据而等到r2才提交吗？ ...

那当然不会了，如果application package已达最优，当然没必要拖延

llpbrace

diablo2man 发表于 2014-9-11 21:24
this statistic doesn't make sense unless you could prove it has no bias. I think samples on gmatclub ...

"For example, Wharton may only admit 1-2 Chinese with big 4 background, so even one people get in before you, you may lose your spot even if your background meets standard. It is just a demand and supply game. "

May I ask where does this come from? Tbh I don't think any school has such hard standard. Think about following scenarios:
A. 4 years assurance in kpmg.
B. 2 years consulting in Deloitte, 2.5 years IBD in XX
C. 2 years assurance in pwc, 3 years PE in xx
D. 5 years business analysis in e&y

They all have big 4 backgrounds. In real situation, u can hardly find any two ppl with same job function in same department in same company with same period. The above cases are more like real situation and I don't think the admission of any1 will compromise the others.

Open to discuss

llpbrace

brfmzbjz 发表于 2014-9-11 23:57
这个数据一定有bias
用GMAT学过的逻辑想想就知道
上Gmatclub的人群是不是有什么不一样的特征？

其实我刚开始也这么觉得。但是实在想不出是什么造成的bias...难道这个论坛有些专家总会忽悠会员r1有优势所以大家都r1了？

brfmzbjz

llpbrace 发表于 2014-9-12 00:32
其实我刚开始也这么觉得。但是实在想不出是什么造成的bias...难道这个论坛有些专家总会忽悠会员r1有优势 ...

从r1 r2 application的人数占比已经可以看出bias了
possible explanations 可以有很多