Argument60 求指导><

mnomno

自己写的第一篇argument，没有限时，边找模板边写的，求大神指导其中的逻辑错误和行文啊~~
另外有几个问题：
字数写到多少比较好？
用模板有什么负面影响，感觉结尾就是在凑字数。。。。
拜谢！
In this argument, the author advocates that demand for heating oil will boom, which is based on the prediction that where will be lower temperature and more population in the future.  The argument suffers from several flaws, thus not convincing enough to lead to the conclusion that investment should be laid in Consolidated Industries.

The author claims that the temperature will remains very low in the following several winters by citing the forecasts at Waymarsh University. While it is easy to forecast the weather in a few days even in a month, it is widely accepted that it’s hard to forecast the climate in a few years. What’s more, neither any conclusive scientific evidence nor any anecdotal evidence is provided to affirm this assumption. So the evidence is weak .It is reasonable to doubt that what the arguer assumes will not happen in reality.

Another problem with the argument involves the assumption that the demand for heating oil will increase. Nevertheless, there is no guarantee that it is necessarily the case, and the arguer does not supply any evidence to confirm this assumption.  Even if we admit that the temperature will go down and the population will grow, which is, of course, an unwarranted assumption; it is unreasonable to draw any conclusions about the demand for oil. The arguer ignores the possibility that the residents in the northeastern United States will choose alternative fuels for heating. Especially in the world that science and technology is developing rapidly, it is highly possible that in a couple of years, new, clean and cheap energy will replace oil as heating oil.  Without accounting for and ruling out these and other alternative situations, the arguer cannot bolster that the demand for oil will increase.

Last but not least, the analog that a higher demand for oil will benefit the investors of Consolidated Constructions is completely wrong. The company’s profit depends on not only the number of unit of products it sell, but also the revenue earned in each unit. From the author’s analysis, we know nothing about the revenue. It may be the case that the government decide to the company on its pollution to the environment, which will definitely lead to a large decrease in profits. If so, then the editorial’s recommendation might amount to poor advice for investing on Consolidated Industries. Not to mention the other risks in company’s management.  .To reach the cited conclusion, the arguer must explain either why none of these alternatives is available or why none of them is able to sustain.

To sum up, the arguer’s argument mentioned above is not based on valid evidence or sound reasoning, neither of which is dispensable for a conclusive argument.  In order to draw a better conclusion, the arguer should reason more convincingly, cite some evidence that is more persuasive, and take every possible consideration into account.

竹林中人

这篇作文看不出大的漏洞，对于一般的写作水平，字数越多越好，没有一个统一的标准，模板是得三分很好的保证，想要更高分数，就要尽力摆脱别人的模板了

mnomno

多谢！ (￣▽￣)