第一篇作文练习Argument 60 求点评！

serenity2012

Argument 60

The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.

"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

The author predicts in the letter  that the investment in sale of home heating oil will be profitable based on an increased demand for heating oil, whereas he/she does not make a concrete connection between the increased demand for heating oil and cold winters in this area.  Besides, the author assumes that an demand for heating oil is being increased since many new house will being built with population growth, the assumption, however, is unwarranted, and thus does not lend strongly support to the author’s prediction.

While it’s stated in the argument that most homes in the northeastern United States in winters have traditionally used oil as their major fuel to warm houses, the author assumes the fact that oil was used as the major fuel in the past equally means that they use oil for heating now. The assumption is illogical. It is possible that most homes have electricity heating or ground heating. Even if they still use oil for heating at present, the author fails to consider other likely possibilities that most people don’t live there in winters since it’s frigid, which leads to no amounts of oil consumption in those homes at all. Furthermore, people in that region can also choose other resources to warm houses, such as coals, electricity, ground heating, and woods. To strengthen the prediction, the author needs to a market research about real oil consumption amount and home utilization rate in winters.

The fact that below-normal temperatures might continue for several more years in that region does not ensure that heating oil will be more used to warm houses. It is equally possible that 90 days with below-normal temperatures last year are not a long period compared with 92 days experienced 2 years ago and 96 days 3 years ago. It’s getting warmer and warmer in that area. Without eliminating this possibilities, the author cannot rely on the climate forecasting to conclude that an amount of oil demand used for heating will boost. More information about local temperature comparison within past several years in winters and cold duration would better support the argument.

The argument cites that many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth.  The author assumes that each new born baby needs a new house, yet common sense and experience tells us this is not the case. For example, a family with four people(two adults and two kids), who is welcoming a new baby, live in one house. Even they have 8 kids, as long as the house can hold them, they still will live together. Another alternative explanation is provided for the fact that it’s in shortage of oil since it is very far from oil producing wells, so that the price of oil in that region is extremely expensive than that of oil in other regions. Without weighting costs and profits the argument’s conclusion is unjustified at best.

In a nutshell, to better give clients investment advice, accurate temperature comparison in the past several years and house utilization rates are needed. Lacking of the analysis about what energies people are using for heating homes in the area and what proportion of oil they are using, the prediction is unpersuasive.

普渡哥

结构要调整，读读范文重写一遍试试。