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The following appeared as part of a business plan created by the management of the Take Heart Fitness Center: “After opening the new swimming pool early last summer, Take Heart saw a 12 percent increase in the use of the center by its members. Therefore, in order to increase membership in Take Heart, we should continue to add new recreational facilities in subsequent years: for example, a multipurpose game room, a tennis court, and a miniature golf course. Being the only center in the area offering this range of activities would give us a competitive advantage in the health and recreation market.” Discuss how well reasoned … etc. Take Heart健身中心的管理者起草的商业计划： 去年夏天开了新的游泳池以后，TH发现会员对中心的使用率增加了12%。因此，为了增加我们的会员数量来增加收入，我们应该在以后几年中继续增加新的娱乐设施：比如，一个多功能游戏室，一个网球场，一个迷你高尔夫球场。作为本地唯一一家提供各种活动的健身中心，我们将在健身和娱乐市场建立竞争优势。
The management of the Take Heart Center claims that in order to increase membership in Take Heart, they should continue to add new recreational facilities in subsequent years. To substantiate the conclusion, the manager first points out that after opening the new swimming pool, Take Heart saw a 12 percent increase in the use of the center. Also, he claims that being the only center in the area offering this range of activities would give them a great advantage in the health and recreation market. The argument is somewhat persuasive but not convincing for the following reasons.
First, the manager false establish a casual relationship. The mere fact that opening a swimming pool is preceded 12 precent increase in the use of the center is insufficient to establish a causal relationship. For example, may be there are some other reasons such as the 12 percent increase occurs in the summer and people don want to swimming in other seasons. So ,it is unreasoned to conclude the two events are correlated.
Second, the evidence the manager provided is insufficient to support the conclusion that add new facilities will increase the center’s membership. One example is logically unsounded to establish a generally conclusion. For instance, most of the people in this area like swimming, but for other sports, may not so attractive to them.
Third, the manager assume that all condition of the area are remain unchanged as they were before , but future is uncertain. The argument commits a fallacy of “all things are equal” For example, may be there will be a lot of health center in the subsequence years and it will be more difficult for Take Heart center to compete in the health ad recreation market. Failure to consider such possibility will lead to a worthless conclusion.
In summary, the manager’s conclusion that adding additional facilities will increase their membership is not persuasive as it stands. It could be considerably strengthen if the manager provided direct evidence that the increase in the use of the center is due to the new opening swimming pool. Also, it would be necessary to show that by add new facilities will surely increase the TH’s membership.
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发表于 2013-6-15 18:24:57
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