新人第一次写发帖，第一篇argument求拍

cir

没有计时，word里写的把拼写错误都改掉了，唉深深地感觉写不完来不及了。。T_T
NO.60 就是那个美国东北部供暖问题


In this argument the arguer predicts thatthe demand for heating oil will be increased and recommend investment inconsolidated industries whose major business operation is the retail sale ofhome heating oil. the recommendation is based on the fact that the most homesin northeastern united states traditionally used oil as major fuel for heatingand weather pattern there is predicted to continue for several years,. Also,many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent populationgrowth. This argument is reliable at first glance, but it is rife of holes andassumptions which makes it invalidated.

First of all, the arguer assumed that newhomes built in the region will all choose oil as their major fuel for heating. Withoutany surveys or evidences we can't know whether if they prefer this traditionalway of heating. It’s highly possible that new built house now is abandon thefossil fuel and is adopted to electronica heating machine. The new built houseperhaps will be designed to be central-provided heating which does not needretail oil as fuel anymore. Still, we don't know how many or what percentage ofnew built house in the region. Without these information we can't tell howthese new built house influences the sale of the retail sale of the oil.


Additionally, what climate forecasterpredicted that long time below-normal temperatures' weather pattern will continuefor several more years may be not correct and precise. We all know today globewarming is getting worse and worse. So perhaps the weather pattern will havechanged and become warm for the next fewer years. Also, this argument provideno evidence to show how authoritative or precise these climate forecasters are.So the assumption that the weather will be continued this cold is invalidated.


Finally, even if the weather prediction iscorrect and the consumption of the oil for heating is increased, it still lacksthe connection with the assumption that residents in this region are willing tobuy the retail sale of oil from consolidated industries. Perhaps the oil in thisregion are provided in wholesale way that people doesn’t need to buy it inretail sale way, or may be the price of consolidated industries’ oil is higherthan other competitors which makes it’s not in good sale.


In sum, surly the sale of consolidatedindustries’ oil may be increased and makes it worthwhile to invest it. However theconclusion the author made above is invalid. To make it logically acceptable,the author need to provide more information about new built house in theregion, the authority and the accuracy of the prediction and the consolidatedindustries and carefully analysis all of these assumptions.

竹林中人

good job，感觉LZ的推理很清晰，很不错，加油

cir

谢谢鼓励。就是写得很慢，而且拼写错误很多需要word纠正。。。