历史与决策的那篇issue好难写，小女已经尽力了，请各位大侠给建议。。。。

杨姝云

题目：

Claim: Knowing about the past cannot help people to make importantdecisions today.

Reason: We are not able to make connections between current events andpast events until we have some distance from both.

Write a response in which you discuss the extent to which you agree ordisagree with the claim and the reason on which that claim is based.

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The statement says that important decisions in the status quo are notpossible to be made with regard to the past, and the speaker attribute it tothe fact that we can only bridge current events with past ones till both ofthem become history. Although I can partially accept the explanation, I cannotconcur with the speaker's final claim, as well as the inference between thesetwo parts. History stories happen to us occasionally. If we know them a lot andapply those cases to current situation, we are likely to circumvent some of thetragedies and make our life easier.

We do sometimes realize something and find it similar to history after anevent happens, as the reason part says, but there are possibilities tosuccessfully predict some events by just using a history textbook. Financialcrisis is quite a vivid example to prove both sides. It's commonly acceptedthat financial crisis more or less happens to the globe about every decade.There were many times that in retrospect, people found that the situation theywere in then was quite similar to previous one and leaders might rue that theydidn't realize that and eventually made a mistake that won't be fixed. Surelythat to identify the current situation and find the similarities when comparedto some former cases is quite difficult, because it requires not only richexperience but also significant and astonishing clairvoyance. Like empiricaleconomists, some leaders can make accurate and useful predictions about someevents. They always have a good command of historical knowledge as well asinsightful analytical skills, and then they can make some decisions to correct oreliminate something wrong ahead of it really happens. In this sense, someglitches or faults can be avoided by their perception. Therefore, what thespeaker says for reason is qualified true because of some flaws in it.

Nevertheless, this partial correct reason is not that successful whenderiving the conclusion. Admittedly, finding the similarities between a currentsituation and some previous ones is quite difficult and sometimes impossible.But we should still go on learning historical cases and avoid make samemistakes as before. Hardness shouldn't be the reason for not thinking abouthistory. Many majors in colleges, like economy, political science, and soforth, are empirical subjects, and students are always on fire for learningthem. This is a proof of their being useful and important to the real currentworld.

As a consequence, I cannot agree with the speaker's claim in thisstatement. Knowing about the past is an effective way to achieve a growthwithout stupid mistakes. Learning the stories in the World War Two, we'll knowthe disadvantages of extremism and overly totalitarianism from Hitler; sopoliticians can make some right decisions to avoid such tragedies happeningagain. By knowing some facts about Great Depression and subprime crisis, theWhite House and Federal Reserves can do things to avoid new economic bubblesshowing up. Hence, taking the history as mirrors can do some favor that wereally want in the current world.

Important decisions always need to be carefully scrutinized before theyare made. And history is one of the most significant ways to help with analyzingthe impending decision. Although connecting previous experiences to currentsituation is difficult, we should continue learning history. Only by this canwe achieve what we want easier and avoid some unnecessary detours.

普渡哥

我觉得作者重点要论述的是反对意见，但是大篇幅谈的不是重点。

普渡哥

要坚持下去。