argument 5 求批改

zhanghaolin

Argument 5. The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

In the letter, the author recommends that the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies during the summer season in order to reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians. He cites the example of the neighboring island of Seaville of such policy as evidence. However, I am afraid the argument can hardly bear further consideration because there are some flaws in it. The author needs to answer a few of question about the specific situation of both Seaville and Balmer before reaching a final conclusion.

First and foremost, the author mentions about the needs to limit the number of mopeds on roads, however, there is no data or evidence to prove the existence or the level of harm of the accidents. Because unlike car, mopeds often do not have high speed and the consequence of the accidents are always not serious, it is reasonable to ask that whether there is the requirement to implement such a policy or not. Moreover, such policy will damage the rentals companies’ interests to a large extent. So, if the number of accidents in Balmer is not large and implement such policy can hardly reduce the number of accidents significantly, the author should weigh the advantages and disadvantages of the policy.

Furthermore, since the author cites the example of Seaville, I would like to ask whether the specific situation in Seaville is same to Balmer or not. The author provides neither the information of the road conditions nor the population or number of mopeds in Balmer. It is possible reason of the high rate of accidents in Balmer is that the large number of mopeds and bad road condition in Balmer. In this case, limiting the number of rentals is surely an easy and effective method to reduce the rate of accidents. But if the situation in Balmer is not the similar one, for example, the road condition here is excellent and accidents are mainly caused by violations, such as driving without license, driving after drunk or drag racing, how can we expect that limiting the number of mopeds on the road will solve the problem? On the contrary, I am afraid the limiting number of mopeds only makes roads more empty and make room for more violations. So before reaching a conclusion, the author should answer whether the situation in Seaville is same to Balmer that makes the policy effective.

To sum up, after pointing out so many obvious flaws and questions needed to be answered in the argument, we can say that the evidence cited by the author can hardly be relied on. Before reaching a final conclusion and making recommendation, the author should answer the questions about the specific situation of Balmer and whether there are other possible methods to solve the problem without harm the interests of rental companies.

普渡哥

最后一句：without doing.

竹林中人

Inthe letter, the author recommends that the town council of Balmer Island
should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companiesduring the summer season in order to reduce the number of accidents involvingmopeds and pedestrians. He cites the example of the neighboring island of Seaville of such policy as evidence.However, I am afraid the argument can hardly bear further consideration becausethere are some flaws in it. The author needs to answer a few of question（questions即可） about the specific situation of both Seavilleand Balmer before reaching a final conclusion.

First and foremost, the author mentions about theneeds to limit the number of mopeds on roads, however, there is no data orevidence to prove the existence or the level of harm of the accidents. Becauseunlike car, mopedsoften do not have high speed and the consequence of the accidents are alwaysnot serious,（how do you know for this is not mentioned，and you can only infer but not so sure of）it is reasonable to ask that whether there is the requirementto implement such a policy or not. Moreover, such policy will damage therentals companies’ interests to a large extent. So, if the number of accidentsin Balmer is not large and implement such policy can hardly reduce the numberof accidents significantly, the author should weigh the advantages anddisadvantages of the policy.

Furthermore, since the author cites the example ofSeaville, I would like to ask whether the specific situation in Seaville issame to Balmer or not. The author provides neither the information of the roadconditions nor the population or number of mopeds in Balmer. It is possible reason of the high rate of accidents in Balmer is that the large number of mopeds and bad road condition inBalmer. (前面这句比较混乱)  Inthis case, limiting the number of rentals is surely an easy and effectivemethod to reduce the rate of accidents. But if the situation in Balmer is notthe similar one, for example, the road condition here is excellent andaccidents are mainly caused by violations, such as driving without license,driving after drunk or drag racing, how can we expect that limiting the numberof mopeds on the road will solve the problem? On the contrary, I am afraid thelimiting number of mopeds only makes roads more empty and make room for moreviolations. So before reaching a conclusion, the author should answer whetherthe situation in Seaville is same to Balmer that makes the policy effective.
这篇文章只说了两点，而且显得单薄。还以可以说的点有，S的措施采取了之后减少了50%,这是否表明就取得了明显的效果，如果去年是发生了2起，今年一起事故，是否必然是由于该措施的原因呢，再就是，采取该措施是不是唯一的，会有什么负面效果等等
To sum up, after pointing out so many obviousflaws and questions needed to be answered in the argument, we can say that theevidence cited by the author can hardly be relied on. Before reaching a finalconclusion and making recommendation, the author should answer the questionsabout the specific situation of Balmer and whether there are other possiblemethods to solve the problem without harm the interests of rental companies.

zhanghaolin

谢谢普渡哥和竹林中人的批改