In this argument the editor of Balmer Island Gazette comes to aconclusion that in ord to diminish the number of accidents involving mopeds andpedestrians,Balmer Island’s town council need to limit the number of mopedsrented by the island’s moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per dayduring the summer season. To justify the conclusion the editor points out that throughthe limint of rental,the town council will attain the 50 percent annualreduction in moped accidents. The editor also cites that the neighbor island ofSeaville whose town council enforced similar limints on moped rentals reachedthe effect last year. The argument iswell presented and appears to be relatively sound at firstglance.however,closed scrutiny of this argument reveals that it is unconvincingon several aspects . To begin with,The argument unfairly claims that by liminting thenumber of mopeds rental will make the same reduction of accidents.There is noevidence to prove that the number of accidents will be necessily reduced byliminting the number of moped rental. It is quite possibl that driver’s usual carelessness lead to this situation,orperheps it is caused by the pedestrians break the trafficrules,or Since the argument fails to account for the alternative reason forcausing the accident. In addition, the argument commits a false analogy in assumingthat the method that liminting the number of moped rental have been taken inSeaville will achieve the same effect in Balmer.However, It is quite possiblethat there are some differences between seaville Island and BamlerIsland ,likethe various geographical conditions,or different traffic equipments,ordisparate population. Finally,even though the method that liminting the number odmoped renred is reasonable.however,is it really effective?It is quite possible thatthe residents complain to the inconvenience to take a bus,alsoperhaps that will reduce the businessman andtourists from the otherregions,thus it will generate a negative influence on the native economy.sincebefore a general evaluation,the author can not simply reproduce the messure,itis likely that there are still have many other solutions To sum up, the author fails to substantiate the conclusion.Tostrengthen thus argument the author need to account for the alternative reasonfor causing the accident . To betterassess the argument the author also need to compare the different circunmstantial between the Seavill island andBalmer island .moreover,the author need to make a general evaluation,not justsimply reproduce,and take more effective messure to solve it.